SMM Lead Market Comment And Forecast (July 12)

Overnight, the lead price was set at $2059.5 per ton, with an upward trend during the Asian period; After entering the European period, it reached as high as $2,078/ton, due to a significant increase in LME lead inventory and a rebound in lead prices, reaching as low as $2,050/ton. In the end of the day, it slightly rose and ended at $2,063.5/ton, an increase of 0.02%. Its holdings decreased by 1,920 to 122,000 compared to the previous trading day, and trading volume increased by 1,065 to 4,699.

Overnight, the main 2308 contract of Shanghai Lead jumped short and opened low at 15,525 yuan/ton, hitting a high of $15,535/ton at the beginning of the session. However, due to the downward drag of Lun Lead, it weakened and fell to 15,480 yuan/ton, fluctuating around 15,490 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 15,485 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.48%. Its holdings decreased by 3224 to 90,635 compared to the previous trading day, and trading volume decreased by 19,607 to 21,220.

Spot Fundamentals:

Today's lead price forecast:

On a macro level, at 8:30 pm, the United States announced the June non seasonally adjusted CPI annual rate, post seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate, and non seasonally adjusted core CPI annual rate; At 2am the next day, the Federal Reserve released its Brown Book of Economic Conditions.

On a spot basis, the maintenance of primary lead and recycled lead smelting enterprises has gradually ended, and the supply of lead ingots is expected to increase. However, the tight supply pattern of ore and waste has not improved, and raw material issues may still drag down supply growth. The traditional off-season in the downstream lead-acid battery market is gradually coming to an end, and some battery companies have reduced their unconventional vacation time, leading to some signs of improvement in lead consumption. However, the downstream market is still mainly focused on hard demand procurement, and market expectations for consumer recovery are generally delayed until mid to late August. The degree of improvement in lead consumption is limited, and it is still necessary to wait for the strengthening of recovery expectations and the continuous improvement of the market environment.

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