SHANGHAI, Jul 6 (SMM) –The most-traded SHFE 2308 aluminum contract opened at 17,820 yuan/mt overnight, with its low and high at 17,780 yuan/mt and 17,890 yuan/mt before closing at 17,885 yuan/mt. It fell by 30 yuan/mt or 0.17%.

LME aluminum opened at $2,169/mt on Wednesday, with its low and high at $2,135/mt and $2,170/mt respectively before closing at $2,137/mt, a drop of $33/mt or 1.52%.

There are growing expectations a 25 basis point interest rate hike by by European Central Bank in July. The market is closely watching data, such as the US non-farm payrolls data to be released on Friday. In terms of fundamentals, Yunnan's output has gradually increased, and supply pressure may appear in late July. At present, although the social inventory of aluminum ingots in China is expected to accumulate, the total amount is still at a low level. However, smelters are producing more ingots instead of liquid aluminium, which coupled with the weakening of downstream consumption, will put downward pressure on aluminium prices. In the short term, it is expected that SHFE aluminum will trade rangebound. There are rumours of power rationing in Leshan, Sichuan province. Market should pay attention to the possible opportunities for the inflow of imported aluminum ingots brought about by the narrowing of domestic and overseas price difference.

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