SMM Aluminium Market Daily Comment and Forecast (Apr 28, 2023)

SHANGHAI, Apr 28 (SMM) - Overnight, the most-traded SHFE 2306 aluminium contract went down to 18,325 yuan/mt after opening at 18,415 yuan/mt, but then rebounded before closing at 18,465 yuan/mt, down 105 yuan/mt or 0.57%. LME aluminium opened at $2,332/mt on Thursday and closed at $2,326/mt, down 0.21%.

On the macro level, various data show that the U.S. economy is likely to slow down in the second half of this year or even fall into recession, and the impact of bank financial risks persists. On fundamentals, this week's aluminium ingot inventory and aluminium billet inventory both declined. The operating rate of leading aluminium downstream processing companies continued to pick up, but may drop after the Labour Day holiday. Downstream enterprises did not show strong interest in stocking up before the holiday. As the Labour Day holiday approaches, more funds may leave the market. Therefore, SHFE aluminium may face downward pressure. Market should pay close attention to whether market demand will recover after the holiday and possible supply cuts in Yunnan.