Spot price of nickel chloride on 9 April 2020

The UK plans to impose 50% steel tariffs and a 60% quota cut starting July 2026, potentially driving prices above €1,000/ton, causing the highest in Europe. Similarly, EU steel prices have risen 20% since October 2025, with a 34% total surge expected by mid-2026 due to new safeguards and CBAM. In stark contrast, the Indian Ministry of Steel issued a decree on April 27, 2026, exempting MSMEs from QCO compliance for specific stainless steel imports until October 2026. While Europe faces criticism for strangling its manufacturing backbone with bureaucracy and duties, India is moving to de-bureaucratize and support its smaller industrial players.

According to the World Bank’s April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook, global refined nickel production is expected to increase modestly in 2026 and 2027 as new processing capacity comes online in Indonesia. However, the report warned that tighter upstream ore availability is likely to constrain capacity utilization. This suggests future growth in Indonesia’s nickel supply may depend increasingly on ore availability rather than nominal processing capacity alone.