[record of SMM lead Internal Morning meeting on 11 July]

Summary of the lead morning meeting:

Macro:

It is reported that Fed Chairman Powell hinted at the House hearing that he was ready to cut interest rates. The June jobs report did not change his dovish position, and he also reiterated that he would not resign. The minutes of the latest Fed meeting released on the same day showed that many officials believed that the reasons for cutting interest rates were strengthened. U. S. stocks hit a new high, with the S & P 500 index standing at 3000 points at one point.

The EU's downgrade of eurozone growth and inflation forecasts for 2020 reflects a more significant weakness in the eurozone economy, which will strengthen the case for more stimulus measures from ECB President Draghi.

Us crude oil stocks fell 9.499 million barrels last week, far exceeding the forecast of 2.9 million barrels, and crude oil futures rose to a nearly two-month high, according to a report by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

The Commerce Department said it would issue licenses to allow companies to export to Huawei without posing a threat to US national security, but would not remove Huawei from the "blacklist" of export controls.

China's consumer price (CPI) rose 2.7 per cent in June from a year earlier, compared with 2.7 per cent, according to the Bureau of Statistics. The producer price (PPI) was flat in June from a year earlier, with an estimated 0.2%, compared with a previous value of 0.6%.

China's auto market remained in the doldrums, with passenger car sales to dealers falling further in June, with wholesale passenger car sales falling 7.8 per cent year-on-year to 1.73 million units in June, the 12th consecutive month of decline, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.

Fundamentals:

The low level of lead exploration in Shanghai has picked up, and the quotation of the holder has gone with the market. Among them, the price of Jinsha lead in Shanghai market is 50-80 yuan / ton for 1908 contract, 10 yuan / ton for 1908 contract in southern China, 0-10 yuan / ton for Jijin, Wanyang and Tongguan lead in Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas, and 0-10 yuan / ton for Jijin, Wanyang and Tongguan lead in Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas, while the mainstream quotation for the bulk order of the original lead refinery is equal to the average price of SMM1# lead. In terms of recycled lead, it is difficult to make a profit in the production of reduced lead refineries. At the same time, the shipping price of recycled refined lead is difficult to rise, resulting in the reduced lead market falling into a glued state. The recycled refined lead refineries maintain more discount shipments. The mainstream transaction price of tax regenerated refined lead is 100yuan / ton of SMM1# lead average price. Some of the refined lead plants that purchase reduced lead ship at flat water prices. And downstream due to the sharp volatility of lead prices, the future market is not overly optimistic expectations, more careful to pick up goods, bulk market transactions in general.

Lead price:

Lun lead closed in Sanlianyang, broke through the high point of the previous platform again, and had the kinetic energy of upward impact in the short term. Shanghai lead recovered the early decline for two consecutive days, and the amplitude was larger within the day, and the current lead fundamentals had not seen any obvious improvement, so it was still necessary to be cautious about the high lead price.

The price of SMM1# lead is expected to rise 150 yuan per ton today.