[SMM Tin Midday Review] The market lacks new drivers, tin prices are consolidating, and the demand side remains in a wait-and-see mode.

Tin Market Midday Commentary, November 11, 2026

1. Price Review

SMM #1 tin traded in a range of 350,700–356,800 yuan/mt today, with an average price of 353,750 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

The most-traded SHFE tin contract opened at 343,930 yuan/mt, then consolidated higher, closing the morning at 350,520 yuan/mt, up 3,190 yuan/mt or 0.92%. Trading volume reached 185,379 lots, with open interest at 42,367 lots, up 53 lots on the day.

On the LME, 3M tin last traded at $46,330/mt, up $330/mt or 0.72% from the previous close, trading in a range of $46,000–46,700/mt during the session, extending its recovery from lows. The SHFE/LME price ratio stood at around 7.57.

2. Spot Market

Spot transactions were scattered today, dominated by small orders for immediate needs. On the supply side, smelters faced losses from high costs and low selling prices, keeping their willingness to sell subdued. Available supply in the market remained tight, and traders generally maintained high premiums. The persistently high premiums, in turn, further dampened downstream demand follow-through, extending the pattern of tight supply alongside weak transactions. Ex-China, LME tin inventory stood at 3,840 mt on November 10, down 5 mt on the day, with cancelled warrants at 465 mt, accounting for about 12.11%, as inventory remained at relatively low levels for the year.

3. Macro Front

① US October CPI came in above expectations, with a December rate hike fully priced in and consecutive hikes entering the picture. The market has fully priced in at least a 25 bp hike by the US Fed in December, and the possibility of multiple consecutive hikes is now in view. The 2-year US Treasury yield surged 18.5 bp to 4.742%, while the 10-year yield rose 11.2 bp to 4.996%, approaching the 5% mark. The US dollar index gained 0.57% to 102.25. Fed Governor Waller said he would still support a 25 bp hike in December even if inflation cools, and that a 50 bp hike should be considered if price pressures persist. Dallas Fed President Logan believes at least two more hikes are needed.

② Oil prices extended declines as supply continued to recover. WTI crude fell 0.47% to $86.44/bbl, and Brent fell 0.54% to $92.07/bbl. The market is betting on further de-escalation in Iran, with trend-following funds sharply cutting Brent long positions. The EIA raised its 2026 average Brent price forecast to $97/bbl and expects prices to remain near $100 for the rest of the year. In October, 31 LNG carriers transited the Strait of Hormuz, the highest since the conflict began, as Middle East supply continued to recover.

4. Overall Outlook

Overall, macro-level pressure remains: October CPI came in above expectations, leaving a December hike fully priced in and bringing consecutive hikes into view. A stronger US dollar and higher US Treasury yields are constraining valuations for nonferrous metals. However, oil prices have continued to fall from highs, and geopolitical risk premiums have kept cooling, providing some offset to inflation pressures, with no new unexpected bearish developments materializing. Fundamentals side, after the sharp price decline earlier, the narrative of smelting losses, tight supply, and low inventory at home and abroad continues to provide underlying support, while high premiums are limiting demand follow-through and capping upside flexibility. Tin prices are expected to consolidate as the market digests the tug-of-war between macro and fundamental factors. In the short term, SHFE tin is expected to move sideways in a range of 340,000–358,000 yuan/mt, while LME tin is expected to fluctuate between $46,000 and $47,500/mt.