SHFE tin closed the night session at 346,320 yuan, down 0.29%, while LME tin officially closed at $46,313, with low inventory support and rate hike pressure in a tug-of-war [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM Tin Morning Brief | SHFE tin closed at 346,320 yuan in the night session, down 0.29%; LME tin official close at $46,313; low inventory support vs. rate hike pressure in tug-of-war — Wednesday, November 11, 2026

[Futures]

The most-traded SHFE tin SN2612 contract opened at 343,930 yuan/mt in the night session (21:00 November 10 to 01:00 November 11), hit a low of 342,560 yuan, shot up to 349,960 yuan intraday, then pulled back to close at 346,320 yuan, down 1,010 yuan or 0.29% from the previous settlement of 347,330 yuan. Night session volume was 126,476 lots, with open interest at 42,499 lots, up 185 lots. The close rebounded 1,780 yuan from the daytime session close of 344,540 yuan on November 10.

LME 3M tin official close was $46,313/mt, down $126 or 0.27% from the previous trading day's official close of $46,439. In electronic trading early on November 11, the price was quoted at $46,000/mt, down $220 or 0.48% from the previous day's electronic close of $46,220.

[Inventory: Three Dimensions]

LME tin inventory stood at 3,840 mt (down 5 mt on November 10), with canceled warrants at 12.1%. SHFE tin warrants totaled 1,494 mt (down 64 mt). SMM China tin ingot social inventory was 5,171 mt (for the week ending November 6, destocking by 1,171 mt in a single week, marking five consecutive weeks of decline). All three measures are at year-to-date lows, with tight deliverable supply ex-China.

[Macro]

US October CPI rose 0.4% MoM (vs. expectations of 0.3% and a prior reading of 0.6%), while core CPI rose 0.3% MoM (vs. expectations of 0.2%). Due to the October 2025 government shutdown, no data was collected for that period, so YoY figures are not included in this release (published at 21:30 Beijing time on November 10). Before the data, CME showed an 84.2% probability of a 25 bp rate hike in December; after the data, interest rate swaps implied roughly 28 bp.

The 10-year US Treasury yield was 4.982%, up 12 bp from the previous trading day (official close at 3 p.m. ET on November 10; prior: 4.862%). US stocks closed lower, with the Dow down 0.30%, the Nasdaq down 0.74%, and the S&P 500 down 0.38% (November 10 close). NYMEX December WTI settled at $86.04/bbl (down $0.81, or 0.93%), and ICE January Brent settled at $91.49/bbl (down $1.08, or 1.17%), both as of the November 10 settlement.

[Spot]

SMM #1 tin was quoted at 351,500–356,200 yuan/mt on November 10, with an average price of 353,850 yuan/mt, down 1,400 yuan from the previous trading day. Mainstream brands were at premiums of 8,000–9,000 yuan/mt against the SHFE December tin contract. Smelters held back from selling, traders maintained high premiums, and downstream users made just-in-time procurement to replenish stocks.

[Fundamentals]

Supply: The weekly operating rate at refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi rebounded to 59.67%, up 32.75 percentage points WoW (for the week ended November 6), as smelters that had been under maintenance resumed production in a concentrated manner. Ore-side flows have shifted: Alphamin is supplying Bisie concentrates to Nathan Trotter's new smelter in the US; Indonesia will have DSI as the sole agent for strategic commodity exports starting January 1, 2027.

Supply summary: The two provinces' operating rate jumped 32.75 percentage points in a single week to 59.67%, with refined tin supply shifting from contraction to recovery; although ore-side variables such as Bisie diversion and Indonesia's new export policy exist, they do not pose a supply disruption risk, and supply is marginally loosening, weighing on tin price gains.

Demand: SMM data showed China's monthly operating rate at tin solder enterprises was 76% in October, down 3.1 percentage points MoM (79.1% in September). The October peak season drew to a close, with downstream users digesting pre-holiday stockpiles and purchasing as needed, and November-December turning into an off-season. Structural growth remains in the AI hardware chain, with General Administration of Customs data on November 10 showing October integrated circuit exports at $39.594 billion, up 137.1% YoY.

Demand summary: The solder operating rate pulled back 3.1 percentage points MoM to 76%, the September-October peak season has passed, and November-December is entering the seasonal off-season, with monthly demand marginally weakening. Only the 137.1% YoY increase in integrated circuit exports provides a structural offset, and demand lacks incremental support, dragging on tin prices.

[Summary]

Low inventory and high premiums cushion the downside, while rising rate hike expectations and weakening demand cap the upside, with the market characterized as consolidating after an oversold rebound. Industry observers are watching SHFE tin at 340,000-358,000 yuan/mt and LME tin at $46,000-47,500/mt in the short term.