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Copper Prices to Fall to $4,500-5,000 in 2010, CNIA Forum

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GUANGZHOU, Nov. 6 -- Copper prices are expected to weaken in 2010 to average USD 4,500-5,000/mt due to a forecast base metals slump, said a Jiangxi Copper subsidiary.
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &quot;We are expecting a slump market for base metals in the next year, due to uncertainties over the global economy, falling demand with sluggish exports, and rising supply with expanded capacities,&quot; said Shi Zhan, assistant manager at Jinrui Futures Co, at the 9th Secondary Metals International Forum held by China Nonferrous Metals Industry Assn (CNIA) in Guangzhou.
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; His reading of next year's markets goes against positive sentiment from institutions, investors and analysts outside China, who largely expect base metals demand to pick up alongside an economic rebound.
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &quot;With the strong rebound in base metal prices, we will see more capacity picking up,&quot; said Shi.
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &quot;Although China's copper industry has been suffering from difficult access to concentrate for a long time, I think concentrate supply will go up in the following year, with more mines being invested and exploited,&quot; he said.
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &quot;Thus I bet China's copper market will be in surplus by 656,000 mt in 2010 and average prices will be at USD 4,500-5,000/mt,&quot; he added.
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Shi expressed doubts about the strength of global economic growth and demand from China.
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &quot;The IMF has forecast a 1.5% and 0.3% GDP increase for US and European countries respectively [but these] are all below the normal level of 2%,&quot; Shi said.
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &quot;Although sentiments over Chinese economy remain positive, limp exports, together with rising protectionism, are undermining Chinese economy to some extent,&quot; he added.
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &quot;As for the demand side, it is not optimistic at all,&quot; he said.
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The base metal price rebound has also seen more than 4.5 million tpy of aluminum capacity resumed as of September, he estimated.
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; (Source: Metal Bulletin) 
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SMM Daily Review (Nov. 5)

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Copper Prices to Fall to $4,500-5,000 in 2010, CNIA Forum | SMM

Copper Prices to Fall to $4,500-5,000 in 2010, CNIA Forum

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