Zinc Surplus Will Rise to 380,000t This Year - ILZSG

LONDON, Oct. 13 -- The global zinc surplus will widen to 380,000 mt this year before narrowing to 227,000 mt in 2010, according to forecasts by the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG).

    The prediction includes buying made by China’s State Reserve Bureau. In 2008, the surplus was 195,000 mt.

    The forecast is much larger than the 260,000 mt surplus predicted by the ILZSG in April (Apr 23).

    Demand is expected to fall by 5.6% to 10.76 million mt, the largest fall since 1975. The only countries where there will be a rise are China (16.8%) and India (6.2%).

    In 2010, demand in most countries is expected to recover, although in the majority of cases it will remain below 2008 levels. These increases, combined with further expected growth of 7.6% in China and 10.6% in India, are expected to result in an increase in global usage of 11.9% to 12.04 million mt.

    Refined zinc output will fall by 4.7% to 11.14 million mt in 2009 due to the closure of refineries at Balen in Belgium, Dattlen in Germany, Balkhash in Kazakhstan and Copsa Mica in Romania, as well as output cuts in Brazil, Bulgaria, Japan, the Netherlands, Russia and the USA.

    Output will increase in 2010 by 10.1% to 12.26 million mt due to higher production at many of the plants where output was cut, as well as the reopening of Nyrstar’s Balen refinery in the fourth quarter of 2009 and the commissioning of a significant volume of new capacity in China, India and Peru.

    (Source: Metal Bulletin)