Macroeconomic Outlook Positive for 3Q

BEIJING, Oct. 12 -- China's macroeconomic figures are expected to show a further improvement in the third quarter with rapid economic growth, rising investment and clearer recovery of exports, according to securities companies' economic experts.

    Li Xunlei, chief economist with Guotai & Junan Securities, predicts that GDP growth will be about 8.5 percent in the third quarter.

    Dong Xianan, chief macroeconomic analyst with Industrial Securities, holds that the GDP growth will hit 9.5 percent in the third quarter, and that growth will reach 9 percent for the whole year.

    Li predicts that the urban fixed assets investment will grow at 33.7 percent year on year, and the growth will reach 33.1 percent for January-September and stay above 33 percent for the second half of this year.

    Dong also believes that investment will run at high level in the second half, and the growth of fixed asset investment will stabilize around 33 percent year on year.

    Aside from this, the New Export Order Index of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) system in September is helping lift people's confidence in the improvement of export trade.

    According to a report given by Orient Securities, the New Export Order Index came to 53.3 percent in September, up 1.2 percentage points from the previous month.

    At the same time, statistics released by the HSBC show that new orders from overseas markets registered the second biggest increase in 27 months in September, and have risen for four consecutive months, which signals that future month-on-month export growth is likely to be substantial.

    Nevertheless, Li predicts that exports and imports will down year on year in September by 21.7 percent and 15.8 percent respectively.

    China's National Bureau of Statistics will release the official macroeconomic figures on October 22.

    (Source: chinamining.org)