[Minor metal] SMM Forecast - Domestic Manganese Market

SHANGHAI, Sept. 30 (SMM) -- According to a SMM survey of manganese price trend after China’s National Day holiday, 67% of enterprises believe manganese prices will drop, 23% of enterprises predict manganese prices will remain unchanged, and the remaining 10% of enterprises were uncertain about manganese prices after the holiday. The surveyed enterprises include manganese producers (50%), traders (30%), and downstream enterprises (20%).

    The enterprises with pessimistic views believe downstream steel mills purchased on an as-needed basis, and traders also had no plans to build stocks, resulting in weak downstream demand; while operating rates at manganese producers remained greater than 80%, and inventory pressure has increased significantly. In this context, refined manganese prices are expected to fall further.

    SMM predicts refined manganese prices will fall further given oversupply in manganese market. However, current costs remained at RMB 13,000-13,200/mt at most manganese producers, so refined manganese prices are expected to stabilize in the RMB 13,000-13,200/mt range, if raw material prices report no significant reductions.

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