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China's Recovering Demand, Limited Production Capacity to Lift Refined Copper Prices

LONDON, Aug. 20 -- Copper declined in New York and London after equities in China, the world's largest user of the metal, slipped into a so-called bear market, heightening speculation about weaker demand.
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The Shanghai Composite Index fell as much as 5.1 percent and declined 20.5 percent from this year's high in August. Copper climbed 94 percent this year as China rolled out a 4 trillion-yuan ($585 billion) stimulus before new bank loans fell in July.
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &quot;The Chinese had a massive stimulus package and now there are signs of credit tightening up again,&quot; Andy Davidson, an analyst at Numis Securities Ltd. in London, said by phone. &quot;The Chinese are very price sensitive and there are signs that demand is starting to come off.&quot;
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Copper for December delivery declined 8.15 cents, or 2.9 percent, to $2.693 a pound by 8:19 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange's Comex division. Earlier it fell as much as 3.2 percent to $2.6855, the lowest intraday price since Aug. 3.
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Copper for three-month delivery fell $190, or 3.1 percent, to $5,891.5 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange.
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; China's July imports of copper shrank 15 percent from a month earlier, according to the Beijing-based customs office.
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &quot;A significant slowdown in China's commodity demand still pose risks to the price recovery,&quot; Gayle Berry, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London, said in a report.
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Spot premiums, the fee paid on top of the cost of metal for immediate delivery, &quot;are moving higher in Europe and the U.S. as physical demand is starting to improve,&quot; Berry said.
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Copper Forecasts 
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Barclays raised its forecast for copper for immediate delivery to $5,140 a ton in 2009, up from $4,778 previously. In 2010, copper is expected to average $6,438, up from a previous forecast of $6,250.
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; In Chile, an avalanche hit an expansion site at the Andina mine owned by Codelco, the world's largest copper producer. Production wasn't affected, a spokeswoman for Codelco's press office said yesterday.
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Copper supply is forecast to outpace demand by 245,000 tons this year, compared with an earlier estimate of 441,000 tons, London-based researcher GFMS Ltd. said in a report today.
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Among other LME metals for three-month delivery, zinc fell 1.2 percent to $1,773 a ton and lead decreased 1.4 percent to $1,787 a ton. Both zinc and lead supply outpaced demand in June, the International Lead &amp; Zinc Study Group said.
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Aluminum fell 3.8 percent to $1,928 a ton, tin dropped 2.5 percent to $13,501 a ton. Nickel was 0.8 percent lower at $18,650 a ton.
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; (Source: Bloomberg)
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Copper-Surplus Forecast Cut in Half

Copper Falls in New York as China's Equities Enter Bear Market | Shanghai Non ferrous Metals

Copper Falls in New York as China's Equities Enter Bear Market

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