[Cu] Cochilco Revises up Copper Price Forecast to USD 1.95/lbs for This Year

HONG KONG, July 30 -- Chinese domestic zinc treatment charges settled at RMB 5,500-6,000/mt ($805-878/mt) in July, up from RMB 5,000-5,500/mt in May, industry sources in China said Thursday. 
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&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; State-run metals information provider Beijing Antaike attributed the rise to Chinese mines ramping up operations. 
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&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &quot;Chinese lead and zinc mine operation rates in July are back above 80%. We expect the rates to remain at current levels until winter as higher local refined zinc prices have encouraged more mines to resume operations,&quot; an Antaike source said. &quot;Chinese mines are willing to pay higher TCs to local smelters as overseas mines have offered higher TCs,&quot; she added. 
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&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Operating rates at Chinese lead and zinc mines fell to 50-65% in the first quarter of the year, tracking the fall in refined zinc prices in the period, China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association data showed.&nbsp; 
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&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Chinese local prices for 51% zinc concentrate stood at RMB 8,300- 8,400/mt ($1,215-1,229/mt) Friday, up from RMB 7,900-8,000/mt in early June. 
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&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The rise is due to higher domestic refined zinc prices, which averaged RMB 13,700/mt ($2,005/mt) Friday, compared with RMB 11,593/mt in January. 
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&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; TCs, the fees paid to smelters by mines for converting zinc concentrate into refined zinc, are a major source of revenue for smelters. 
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&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Meanwhile, spot zinc TCs offered by overseas mines to Chinese smelters have risen to $145-155/mt in July from $100-120/mt in May and June, said Guangdong-based Jinrui Futures, a subsidiary of Jiangxi Copper. In early April, the TCs languished at $70-80/mt. 
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&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; However, Antaike noted that overseas zinc smelters had also ramped up operations recently in line with the pickup in global demand for concentrate, which may dampen any further rises in Chinese TCs this year, even if LME three-month zinc prices were to rise further. 
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&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; A zinc analyst with Beijing-based Galaxy Securities said many Chinese zinc smelters had been using high-priced concentrate purchased in 2008 during H1 2009, but would resume buying in H2 as their stock levels fell. &quot;This, plus some overseas zinc smelters' higher operation rates, will lift global demand for concentrate, limiting room for further rises in TCs,&quot; the analyst said. 
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&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; China imported 1.59 million mt zinc concentrate in H1 2009, up 48.7% year on year, customs figures showed. 
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&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The country's zinc concentrate output totaled 1.275 million mt over the same period, down 11% year on year, state statistics showed.
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; (Source: Platts)
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