WBMS: Supply Exceeds Demand for Most Base Metals

NEW YORK, July 17 -- Most nonferrous metals are in surplus in early 2009, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics reports. The world copper market was in surplus of 133,000 metric tons at the end of April. From January to April, nickel output exceeded demand by 61,900 metric tons, while the zinc surplus was around 16,400 metric tons and the lead market had an 11,600 metric ton surplus. WBMS says the tin market posted a 2,400 metric ton surplus.

    The 2009 five-month copper surplus is down from the 161,000-metric ton surplus posted in January-April 2008, a decrease due in large part to the early 2009 flurry of copper buying by China. The report showed copper mine production in January to April at 5.02 million metric tons, a 1.6% rise compared with the same four months of 2008, while refined copper output inched up 0.2% to 6 million metric tons.

    Global consumption of copper in the first four months of 2009 was 5.874 million metric tons, representing a 4.6% drop compared with the same period the previous year. Chinese apparent consumption of copper jumped to 2.3 million metric tons from 1.7 million in 2008, but WBMS notes that "this increase may mask a build up of unreported stocks since the output of semi manufactures was reported to be only 13.4% higher than last year."

    The agency added a caveat about the smallish zinc surplus, noting that Chinese stockpiling might be skewing the reported figure, so it may be even higher. By comparison, the global zinc surplus was 65,000 metric tons during January-April 2008. Nearly all of the 2009 stock increase was recorded at London Metals Exchange warehouses so these stocks represented 47% of the global total.

    But, because Chinese "apparent demand" was higher than expected—with China logging record zinc imports for the three latest months, according to China customs data—"it is likely that some of this material is bound for stockpiles and thus the actual global surplus is probably much more than headline figures indicate," the WBMS report notes.

    The lead metal surplus was somewhat comparable to the year-ago total of 14,100 metric tons as a tepid demand surge from Asia was not enough to counter substantial hits to demand for the base metal in Europe which fell by 26% and in the U.S., where demand slid by 10.3%, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics reported. Nickel showed a 35,400 metric ton increase in the metal's surplus for the first four months of 2009 as refined production for the first four months of the year reached 437,300 metric tons but demand hovered at 375,400.

    (Source: Purchasing.com)