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LONDON, July 16 -- Low inventory levels, combined with favourable supply and demand fundamentals, will benefit copper and zinc ahead of other London Metal Exchange (LME) metals, Investec Asset Management said on Wednesday.
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Speaking at a presentation on Investec's 2009 second half outlook, George Cheveley, a manager on the global commodities team, said base metal prices were now at reasonable levels.
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Supply has been cut in zinc much more aggressively earlier this year and in copper it has always struggled to meet demand over the last few years,&quot; said Cheveley, whose group have over $2.5 billion invested in commodities and resource equities.
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Copper, used in power and construction, was traded at about $5,250 a tonne on Wednesday, and has risen by about 60 percent this year. Zinc was at $1,540 a tonne.
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Copper hit an all-time high of $8,940 a tonne in July 2008, while zinc touched a record high of $4,580 in November 2006.
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; LME inventories in copper are at 261,100 tonnes -- its lowest level since November 2008, while zinc is at 353,850 tonnes -- down from levels above 780,000 tonnes in April 2004.
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Investec forecasts copper to average $4,600 a tonne this year, with zinc seen at around $1,700/$1,800 a tonne.
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Next year it sees copper prices at an average of $5,400.
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Cheveley said that after the seasonal summer lull, Chinese demand would remain robust, while the end of de-stocking in the western world would support copper and zinc.
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Aluminium, used in the transport and packaging industries, is currently traded at about $1,650 a tonne, while steel ingredient nickel was at $15,850.
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Aluminium stocks are currently at record levels above 4.5 million tonnes, while nickel inventories also remain near record highs above 108,000 tonnes.
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &quot;In aluminium and nickel, we've seen big increases in supply overtaking demand in the past year in a big way,&quot; Cheverly said.
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Like other base metals, both have experienced a strong recovery this year, as Chinese stockpiling boosted prices.
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &quot;There has been very good fundamental demand in China,&quot; said Cheveley. &quot;Fundamental underlying demand has been very strong in China and it's not just about Chinese government intervention of stockpiling.&quot;
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &quot;That is fundamental demand going into infrastructure projects.&quot;
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; China represents over 40 percent of global demand for aluminium, copper, zinc, lead and nickel.
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; On precious metal markets, Investec expects gold to trade in a range between $880 and $1,100 an ounce this year.
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The fund also forecasts Brent crude to average $55 a barrel in 2009 and $65 a barrel the year after.
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; (Source: Reuters)
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Low Inventories Favour Copper, Zinc in H2 | SMM

Low Inventories Favour Copper, Zinc in H2

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