Copper Cuts Gains on Chinese Demand Worries

MANILA, July 13 -- Shanghai copper rose for the third day on Monday, helped by data showing that Chinese imports of the industrial metal surged to a new record for the fifth month in June.

    But gains were capped by concerns that Chinese demand will weaken in the second half of 2009, and investors will be looking out for China's gross domestic product data, due on Thursday, for pointers to the strength of the world's third-largest economy.

    China's imports of unwrought copper and semi-finished copper products rose an unexpected 12.6 percent to hit a new record in June for the fifth straight month on continued arrivals of contracted metal, according to data released on Friday.

    The data suggested that China's refined copper imports could rise to 380,799 tonnes in June when data is released later in the month, up from May's record 337,230 tonnes.

    Traders had expected refined copper imports to fall to 300,000-320,000 tonnes last month due to the closure of the arbitrage window and weaker demand in the summer.

    The latest imports data from China showed the "phenomenal impact of the massive increase in bank lending on the Chinese economy," Macquarie analysts said in a note.

    "The momentum created by this surge in spending will continue for many months yet, and the risks to second-half demand are to the upside," they added.

    Benchmark Shanghai copper rose as much as 1.3 percent to a session-high of 40,000 yuan ($5,857) a tonne, before easing to 39,550 yuan by 0228 GMT.

    The most active October contract edged up 0.2 percent to 39,450 yuan, also off an initial peak of 39,900 yuan.

    Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange gained $5 to $4,860 a tonne, after rising as high as $4,915 earlier.

    The Chinese imports data should have been more supportive of copper prices and the fact that they weren't suggested the market remained concerned Chinese buying would slow in the second half of the year, analysts said.

    "I don't think that worry is gone and that continues to limit copper prices for the time being," said David Moore, commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

    Moore said Chinese GDP and industrial output data to be released on Thursday would be "very important to the market in the short term."

    China's economy probably expanded by 7.5 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, outpacing the 6.1 percent clip in January-March, aided by increased government spending and bank lending, according to a Reuters poll.

    (Source: Reuters)