Copper Extends Drop on Concern Economic Recovery May Be Delayed

LONDON, July 9  -- Copper prices fell for a fourth day, the longest slump in almost two months in New York, on signs that a global economic recovery likely will be slow to take off.

    The global economy will contract 1.4 percent this year, deeper than forecast in April, and a sustained recovery may be a year away, the International Monetary Fund said today. Group of Eight leaders said they will delay reversing stimulus measures until a rebound is assured. Europe's economy declined by a record in the first quarter, government data showed today.

    "There are rising concerns about the economic recovery," said John Gross, the publisher of the Copper Journal and president of J-E Gross & Co. in Newport, Rhode Island. "Copper has lost steam and prices will be correcting to the downside."

    Copper for September delivery slid 6.65 cents, or 3 percent, to $2.159 a pound on the New York Mercantile Exchange's Comex division, capping the longest slide for the most-active contract since May 15. Copper has fallen 7.4 percent in the past four sessions.

    "There has been plenty of less-negative news and use of the now-worn phrase 'green shoots,' but little information to judge the magnitude and speed of recovery," Robin Bhar, an analyst at Credit Agricole SA's Calyon unit in London, said in a report. "Uncertainty is intensifying."

    Copper has surged 53 percent this year on speculation that the worst of the global recession was past and as China, the world's biggest metals user, imported supplies. The Asian nation's copper imports may plunge 64 percent in the second half of 2009 after record shipments from January through June led to excess inventories, UBS AG analysts said this week.

    Recession's Effect

    The price is down 49 percent from a May 2008 record after the first global recession since World War II depressed demand. Leaders from the G-8 industrialized nations met today to discuss steps to revive shrinking economies and end rising unemployment.

    Global economic growth will rebound to 2.5 percent in 2010, the IMF said. That compares with 1.9 percent forecast in April. The Washington-based lender said a "sustained pickup in activity" won't occur in the world's advanced economies until the second half of 2010.

    In Europe, the European Union said the euro-region economy dropped 2.5 percent in the first three months of this year from the fourth quarter of 2008. That was the steepest decline since record-keeping for the region began in 1995.

    Signs of improvement in the U.S. housing market and manufacturing may limit copper's fall, Gross of J-E Gross said.

    'Misplaced' Concerns

    "The concerns about growth are a little bit misplaced," Gross said. "It's not that the economy is going to turn around rapidly, but there are some signs that stabilization is occurring."

    Copper for three-month delivery fell $155, or 3.2 percent, to $4,725 a metric ton ($2.14 a pound) on the London Metal Exchange, its fifth straight decline and the longest this year.

    Among other LME metals for three-month delivery, aluminum fell 4.2 percent to $1,550 a ton. Tin tumbled 6 percent to $13,295 a ton. Nickel plunged 4.5 percent to $14,950 a ton, lead sank 3 percent to $1,610 a ton, and zinc dropped 4 percent to $1,507 a ton.

    (Source: Bloomberg)