China Copper Imports May Plunge 64% in Second Half

BEIJING, July 8 -- Copper imports into China, which increased to a record this year, may plunge 64 percent in the second half, UBS AG said.

    China, the world's largest consumer of the metal, may cut refined copper imports to around 100,000 metric tons a month in July to December, from an average of 280,000 tons in the first five months, UBS analysts led by Peter Hickson said in an e- mailed report dated July 6.

    There are "clear indications that China is now overstocked" as the Strategic Reserve Bureau is offering up to 100,000 tons of copper to the market and traders are preparing for exports of the metal, the report said.

    UBS joined Macquarie Group Ltd. in forecasting declining Chinese purchases after record shipments lifted prices, closing the gap between London and Shanghai rates and making it unprofitable to import the metal into China.

    Copper, used in construction and power grids, has dropped 8 percent from the year's high of $5,388 a ton on the London Metal Exchange on concern that China may slow buying. The metal has surged 60 percent this year as China ramped up imports to fuel a 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) economic stimulus package.

    UBS estimated that China may have stockpiled 500,000 to 700,000 tons of copper in excess of its industrial needs in the first quarter, 300,000 tons of which "is apparently destined for the Strategic Reserve Bureau."

    This compares with Macquarie estimates of as much as 400,000 tons of total stockpiles, including a 50,000-ton increase in Reserve Bureau stock. Caijing magazine reported in June that China has bought 235,000 tons of copper for strategic reserves this year, citing Yu Dongming, a Chinese government official.

    The copper market will "remain relatively tightly balanced in the foreseeable future," with China's re-stocking having "prevented the accumulation of a sizeable surplus in reported inventories," the UBS report said.

    Copper inventories monitored by the LME dropped 21 percent this year.

    (Source: Bloomberg)