Shanghai Copper Resumes Downtrend; LME Steady

SINGAPORE, June 18 -- Shanghai copper resumed a week-long fall on Thursday after a one-day blip up, and London futures held below $5,000 on persistent concerns that prices do not reflect fundamentals and a period of correction is needed.

    Currencies are likely to remain important drivers of sentiment. Last week's high for copper coincided with the dollar's nadir and the falls in metals since have gone hand in hand with gains in the greenback until Wednesday's relatively benign U.S. consumer price data sent it lower again.

    The dollar was steady on Thursday versus the euro, trading around $1.3950 .

    Shanghai's benchmark third month copper futures contract, September , fell 0.7 percent to 39,120 yuan a tonne by midday.

    Copper for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange fell $5 to $4,955 a tonne by 0336 GMT. On Wednesday, prices fell to a two-week low at $4,880, recoiling after last Thursday's 8-month high of $5,388.

    "Markets are generally tired, they have had such a strong run and most of the recovery news has already been discounted -- that's why we aren't pushing higher, even though we get decent data," MF Global commodities analyst Edward Meir said.

    "Chinese markets are also getting a lot looser. There are questions about demand and premiums there are slackening off and the Iranian election protests are keeping people sidelined."

    Meir said there was a risk the demonstrations might turn into strikes as happened in 1979 when the Shah was toppled.

    "That will hit crude first -- oil will take off -- but I think will also spill over into metals," Meir said.

    A fall in LME copper stocks -- down 1,875 tonnes to 283,175 -- helped cheer the mood, but traders looking ahead think the steep run of declines seen since February may be drawing to an end as cancelled warrants continue to dwindle.

    LME aluminium rose $3 to $1,625 a tonne, while Shanghai metal fell 10 yuan to 13,410 yuan.

    Technically, aluminium's outlook has improved after six months of consolidation, brokerage Newedge said in a note.

    But it added: "Recent gains look in need of correction and/or re-consolidation prior to heading higher once more. Expect resistance to again be encountered in and around the $1,700/10 area and until a clear and sustained break above here can be secured, prices appear vulnerable to potential pullbacks."

    From a fundamental perspective, aluminium looks less rosy.

    LME warehouses rose 36,800 tonnes to a record 4.36 million, up almost fourfold since last August and investors are also worried that restarts of capacity in China and elsewhere could add further pressure to fundamentals weakened by the collapse in the housing and automotive sectors.

    (Source: Reuters)