Aluminum Price to Rise as China Soaks Up Surplus, Hayes Says

NEW YORK, June 18 -- Aluminum prices will rally as economic growth in China helps erase a global surplus, said Timothy Hayes, a metals analyst at Davenport & Co LLC.

    Output will lag behind demand by 856,000 metric tons next year, compared with a surplus of almost 2 million tons in 2009, Hayes said today at an industry conference in Chicago. Global aluminum usage will jump 10 percent next year, while production will rise just 1.6 percent, he said.

    Prices will rally "in anticipation of the coming deficit," Hayes said.

    Spot aluminum will reach $1,800 a metric ton by the end of the year, Hayes forecast. The cash price of the metal was $1,592 a ton at 6:52 p.m. on the London Metal Exchange.

    Supplies will outpace demand by about 2 million tons this year as global use declines 11 percent, Hayes said.

    "Investors will start to push the price higher later this year as they expect fundamentals to get better," he said.

    On the LME, aluminum for delivery in three months, the benchmark contract, was up $12 to $1,622 a ton. The metal has risen 5.3 percent this year.

    (Source: Bloomberg)