China Copper Demand May Rise in Fourth Quarter, JPMorgan Says

BEIJING, June 4 -- Copper demand in China, the world's biggest consumer of the metal, may post a "strong" recovery in the fourth quarter after traders and smelters run down stockpiles, said a strategist at JPMorgan Securities Ltd.

    "Inventories sitting here will get processed in a big way" in the fourth quarter, London-based metals strategist Michael Jansen said in an interview in Shanghai yesterday.

    Copper in London has gained 60 percent this year as imports by China have jumped to record levels on state purchasing and as buyers re-stocked to meet demand from the nation's 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package. High domestic prices have also boosted the appeal of imports.

    Chinese copper demand may rise by between 7 percent and 8 percent for the whole year, partly driven by investment in power infrastructure, Jansen said. Demand probably rose by 5 percent to 6 percent in the first quarter, he said, while attending a conference in Shanghai.

    China's economic growth may accelerate for the rest of the year, growing 9 percent in the fourth-quarter, as the stimulus plan gathers momentum, Fan Jianping, head of the State Information Center's economic forecast department, said May 11.

    Still, "real demand is definitely slowing quarter-on- quarter" in the first nine months, he said, and stocks have been accumulating because of record imports.

    Copper imports by China rose to a record for a third month in April, the Beijing-based customs office said on May 12. Imports were 399,833 metric tons in April, 7 percent higher than March, according to customs data.

    Imports may remain high in May and June, Jansen said, before probably falling to between 100,000 tons and 120,000 tons a month in the second half, he said.

    (Source: Bloomberg)