China August Cu Output Data Analysis

SHANGHAI, Sep. 20 (SMM) -

Copper Concentrate
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), China’s output of copper concentrate in August was 111 kt, slightly higher than July’s 104 kt, and near a yearly high. SMM believes higher copper prices in August resulted in increases in output of copper concentrate since the higher prices stimulated copper smelter production interest, which in turn boosted demand for copper concentrate. If copper prices remain strong in September and production at copper smelters remains high, SMM believes that China’s copper concentrate output will remain as high as 110 kt for September. 
 
Refined Copper
According to the NBS, China’s refined copper output was 397 kt in August, down 1 kt from July, a loss of 0.3% MoM, but up 9.1% YoY. These results were in line with previous SMM predictions. According to the most recent SMM survey, operating rates at domestic medium-and-large size copper smelters fell slightly in August, as Jinlong Copper Industry Company, Chifeng Yuntong Nonferrous Metals Company, and Tianjin Datong Copper Company all conducted unit maintenance. SMM believes China’s output of refined copper will rise in September since most maintenance is complete and production will begin to build following the arrival of a peak demand period.

Copper Semis
According to the NBS, China’s output of copper semis was 919 kt in August, down 0.5% from July. SMM believes that a low demand period and restrictions on electricity supply on copper semis producers have had a negative impact on production of copper semis. Output of copper semis in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, major copper-processing regions, have experienced marked declines due to moves by local governments to restrict power supplies. Over time, orders from downstream consumers will shift to other regions without restrictions on electricity. In other news, based on the SMM survey, copper demand from electric power industry has improved. In this context, China’s copper semis output will increase in September along with improved copper consumption.

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