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SINGAPORE, June 22 -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. lowered its near-term price forecasts for copper, aluminum and zinc as markets remain &quot;fragile&quot; on concerns that the Europe debt crisis may hamper growth and as China moves to cool its economy.
Copper will trade at $6,800 a metric ton in three months time, 16 percent lower than a previous estimate, the bank's analysts led by Allison Nathan and Jeffrey Currie said in a report dated today. The metal will climb to $7,900 a ton in six months and to $8,050 in 12 months, gains of 1.9 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively, from the bank's previous forecasts.
&quot;We believe that the market is overestimating the impact of current policy and maintain that sentiment is too bearish on both the sovereign-debt risks as well as the effects of macroeconomic momentum slowing,&quot; the analysts wrote. &quot;We believe that the markets will remain fragile until there is further evidence that sovereign pressures are stabilizing and economic growth remains intact - both of which we expect.&quot;
Commodities, as measured by the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index, climbed to a five-week high yesterday after China, the world's third-biggest economy, signaled an end to the yuan's peg to the dollar. Still, the index has dropped 7 percent this year on European and Chinese concerns, with copper slumping 11 percent on the London Metal Exchange.
Copper for three-month delivery in London dropped as much as 2 percent to $6,470 a ton today on concern that a stronger Chinese currency will boost the cost the country's exports. The People's Bank of China said on June 19 it will allow greater &quot;flexibility&quot; in its currency, signaling it would abandon the 6.83 yuan peg to the dollar adopted during the global crisis to shield exporters.
Confidence Signal 
The announcement was an &quot;important signal of confidence in the Chinese economy and global recovery,&quot; the analysts wrote. &quot;Rising local exchange rates combined with rising wages, potentially more taxes and royalties on local production, and tighter environmentally-focused regulation, will likely increase the cost of new production going forward.&quot;
Aluminum will trade at $2,000 a ton in three months time, Nathan and Currie wrote, 14 percent less than Goldman previously predicted. The metal will trade at $2,150 in six months, up 6.7 percent, and $2,210 in 12 months, up 1.4 percent.
Goldman's lowered its three-month zinc forecast 23 percent to $2,000 a ton, and dropped its six and 12-month calls 18 percent to $2,100 and $2,225 respectively.
Its three-month nickel forecast was increased 20 percent to $21,000 a ton, while the six-month forecast was raised 28 percent to $22,000 and the 12-month forecast boosted 17 percent to $20,000.
 
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Goldman Cuts Three-Month Copper, Aluminum, Zinc Target on Europe, China Concerns  | Shanghai Non ferrous Metals

Goldman Cuts Three-Month Copper, Aluminum, Zinc Target on Europe, China Concerns

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