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SMM Morning Review - 2010/2/2 Zinc Market
SHANGHAI, Feb. 2 (SMM) -- LME Market
|
|
Close
(USD/mt)
|
Premium/Discount
|
Volume
(lot)
|
Position
(lot)
|
Inventory
(mt)
|
|
3-mth Contract
|
Spot – 3 mth
|
||||
|
Jan. Average
|
2,445
|
-26
|
57,463
|
222,379
|
490,804
|
|
Feb. 1st
|
2,160
|
-10.5
|
52,543
|
206,519
|
497,125
|
SHFE Market
|
|
Zinc – Spot Month (RMB/mt)
|
RMB/USD
|
||
|
SHFE Close
|
Settlement
|
Weighted Ave.
|
||
|
Jan. 18th
|
20,190
|
20,065
|
20,069
|
1:6.8272
|
|
Feb. 1st
|
16,950
|
16,975
|
19,171
|
1:6.8271
|
|
|
Zinc – 3mth (RMB/mt)
|
Shanghai Spot
#0 Zinc Ingot
|
||
|
SHFE Close
|
Settlement
|
Weighted Ave.
|
||
|
Jan. 18th
|
20,550
|
20,415
|
20,415
|
19,955
|
|
Feb. 1st
|
17,240
|
17,250
|
20,233
|
16,800
|
Summary
On the first trading day of this week, SHFE zinc prices opened low and continued to be weak, and SHFE 1005 zinc contract prices closed at RMB 17,430/mt, down 3.1%. Trading volumes set a new high of 1.12 million lots, and positions increased by 11,500 lots, mainly long positions. Although long sentiment became stronger, SHFE zinc prices remained on a downward track, so a cautious attitude should be taken in the near term.
Downstream consumers remained cautious about purchases in the spot markets. On February 1st, #0 zinc was traded between RMB 16,750-16,850/mt, with spot discounts at RMB 500/mt against SHFE 1005 zinc contract, while #1 zinc was traded in the RMB 16,700-16,800/mt range. Marked declines in SHFE copper and zinc prices further generated the wait-and-see sentiment in the market, resulting in very lukewarm trading sentiment. Smelters were reluctant to move goods, leaving market supply limited, but downstream purchases were also limited, with goods in the market mainly from traders, so market supply was not tight.
On February 1st, LME zinc prices ended its downward trend due to better-than-expected manufacturing data in the US, and closed at USD 2,160/mt, with spot discounts against LME three-month zinc contract narrowing to USD 10/mt, an indication of market attitude toward lower prices. However, LME zinc inventories continued to grow to 497 kt, weighing on LME zinc prices, and any upward momentum for LME zinc prices will be limited in the short term. SMM predicts SHFE three-month contract zinc prices will fluctuate in the RMB 17,400-18,000/mt range today.
To contact the writer on this report: monicagao@smm.cn
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Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market exchanges, and relying on SMM's internal database model, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.
For queries, please contact Lemon Zhao at lemonzhao@smm.cn
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