2009 August Cu Imports Data Analysis (Preliminary)

SHANGHAI, Sep. 11 (SMM) --
Scrap Copper:
According to preliminary data from China Customs, China's imports of scrap copper were 390kt during August, down 21.8% YoY, and down 13.3% MoM.  YTD imports were 2.58 million mt, down 34.3% YoY.  Scrap copper imports during August fell from July levels, but  remain relatively high as a result of the inflow into markets of goods previously ordered.   Scrap copper imports will still be restricted by an unfavorable SHFE/LME copper price ratio.  Imports will also face customs clearance difficulties and higher customs clearance fees, and in  this context, scrap copper imports are expected to fall further during September to between 300-350kt.
Unwrought Copper and Copper Semis Products:
According to preliminary data from China Customs, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper semis were 325.1kt during August, up 82.6% YoY, but down 20% MoM. The YTD imports were 2.97 million mt, up 75.8% YoY.  Imports of copper and copper semis have experienced marked declines on a monthly basis since July due to the falling SHFE/LME copper price ratio and from weak downstream demand. Refined copper imports are expected to decline at a slower pace given the current tight scrap copper supply, falling to 200-220kt.

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