2009 June Cu Imports Data Analysis (Preliminary)

SHANGHAI, Jul. 17 (SMM) --
Scrap Copper:
According to preliminary data from China Customs, China's imports of scrap copper were 280kt during June, down 39.23% YoY, and down 14.70% MoM. YTD imports were 1.74 million mt, down 39.76% YoY. Scrap copper imports during June decreased slightly to 250-300kt, and was in line with CBI's forecast. Enthusiasm of scrap copper traders is expected to fall during the  seasonal low demand period from July to August. In addition, current LME copper prices are showing a strong performance, and overseas suppliers are keeping offers firm.  In this context, scrap copper imports are expected to fall further during July to 200-250kt. 
Unwrought Copper and Copper Semis Products:
China's imports of unwrought copper and copper semis were 475,999mt during June, up 173.8% YoY.  YTD imports were 2.24 million mt, up 68.8% YoY. Imports of refined copper are expected to hit a new record high, with significant growth on a monthly basis, and will be higher than market  expectations. Selected major traders say that although SHFE/LME copper price ratio fell slightly during June, June orders were signed in March, April, and May, so June imports only reflect previous orders, including a number of orders made for the purpose of increasing cash flow, not from demand.  In addition, the low availability of  scrap copper is behind the high level of refined copper imports. Market players predict copper imports will fall during July.

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