Tin Market Midday Commentary, November 3, 2026
1. Price Review
SMM #1 tin traded in the range of 349,900–354,700 yuan/mt today, with an average price of 352,300 yuan/mt, down 13,650 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.
The most-traded SHFE tin contract opened lower with a gap at 355,840 yuan/mt in the night session, then drifted lower after the open. Losses continued to widen in the morning, with the intraday low touching 341,050 yuan/mt. Prices recovered slightly from lows near the close, and the morning session closed at 343,300 yuan/mt, down 19,150 yuan/mt or 5.28% from yesterday's settlement price of 362,450 yuan/mt. Trading volume today reached 210,439 lots, with open interest at 49,237 lots, up 2,176 lots on the day.
On the LME side, tin plunged overnight, falling more than 4% at one point during the session. The Asian session today extended the weakness, with the latest quote at $46,400/mt, down $1,005/mt or 2.12% from yesterday's settlement of $47,405/mt. The intraday range was $46,140–47,450/mt, with 128 lots traded. The SHFE/LME price ratio stood at around 7.4.
2. Spot Market
Spot quotes fell sharply in line with futures today, and market transactions declined notably from yesterday. Amid the continuous price decline, downstream purchasing sentiment turned more cautious, with buyers generally inclined to watch for a price bottom and wait for the downtrend to stabilize. Intraday activity was dominated by sporadic spot order inquiries. It is difficult to see volume expansion in such a one-sided downtrend; transactions will only have room to pick up after prices consolidate or stabilize. Demand was overall mediocre. As the traditional peak season gradually fades, downstream enterprises are mainly drawing down raw material inventory and only making small supplementary purchases at low levels. On the quote side, supplier sentiment diverged after the sharp drop in futures. Some traders chose to sell at lower prices due to capital turnover pressure, while other suppliers maintained their willingness to hold prices firm, and the tight supply of available cargoes persisted. After the morning open, small-brand tin ingot was quoted at a premium of around 4,500 yuan/mt against the December contract, deliverable-brand tin ingot at a premium of about 5,000 yuan/mt, and YT brand at a high premium of 6,000–7,000 yuan/mt. Multiple traders reported sold-out positions, and imported tin cargoes were essentially sold out.
Overseas, LME tin inventory stood at 3,970 mt on November 3, down 60 mt on the day, with registered warrants at 3,560 mt and cancelled warrants at 410 mt. Inventory remained at relatively low levels for the year. LME tin had previously shown some resilience near the $50,000/mt level, but under macro pressure combined with the sharp decline in SHFE tin, losses on the LME subsequently widened, with both SHFE and LME weakening in tandem. The supportive effect of low inventory on futures prices has temporarily given way to macro-driven pricing.
3. Macro Front
① The US midterm elections saw a "blue wave" materialize. Official voting took place on November 3, covering all 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats, and 36 gubernatorial races. Over 59 million people voted early, setting a new midterm election record. After ballot counting began on November 4, Democrats took an early lead (Senate 43:32, House 43:19). By midday, US media projected that Democrats would regain control of both chambers of Congress. Trump stated he "absolutely would accept the election results." The market had already priced in the "blue wave" risk: Democratic control of Congress raises expectations for the AI Data Center Suspension Act and data center regulatory implementation, directly hitting the AI capex narrative.
② Overseas risk assets were broadly under pressure. At the US close on November 3, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 2.63% to 10,600.4 points (Lattice up 10.98%, AMD, ON Semiconductor, TI and others up over 3%). AMD reported Q3 revenue of $13.38 billion, up 45% YoY, with data center revenue up 97% YoY. Q4 guidance was around $17 billion, and shares rose as much as 7% after hours. SIA data showed global semiconductor sales reached $517.7 billion in Q3 2026, up 24.1% QoQ. However, on the same evening, COMEX gold fell 0.74% and silver fell 2.12%. On November 4, bitcoin broke below $76,000 and US stock futures fell, with overall risk asset sentiment turning weaker.
③ Expectations for a Fed rate hike in December remain to be priced in. After the Fed held rates steady at the October meeting, market focus shifted to the December meeting. Rate hike expectations have not yet been fully priced in, and tightening trades continue to weigh on the nonferrous metals sector.
4. Comprehensive Outlook
Overall, tin prices remain dominated by macro factors at present. After the "blue wave" materialized in the midterm elections, Democratic control of Congress has increased the risk of AI data center regulation and capex contraction, further pressuring the AI computing demand narrative. Combined with the market still needing to price in a December rate hike, the dual pressure of tightening expectations and the demand narrative has broken LME tin's previous resilience near the $50,000/mt level, with both SHFE and LME weakening in tandem. SHFE tin is expected to consolidate around 342,000–356,000 yuan/mt in the short term, while LME tin fluctuates around $45,000–46,500/mt. If the downtrend continues, watch for support below 340,000 yuan/mt and the pace of pricing in December rate hike expectations.
![[SMM Tin Flash: SHFE tin plunges in night session, LME tin falls over 4%]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/bYFQn20251217171752.jpg)
![The most-traded SHFE tin contract closed at 351,760 in the night session, down 2.95%, while LME tin closed at 47,435, down 4.48%, converging at lows after declining on increased positions [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/QgNfJ20251217171752.jpg)
