October Manganese Ore Inventories Remained Overall Stable with Notable Regional Structural Divergence【SMM Analysis】

In October 2026, manganese ore inventories at major domestic ports exhibited an operational pattern characterized by "stable total volume and regional divergence." From the end of September to the end of October, total port inventories fluctuated within a narrow range around 6 million tonnes, with varying performances across individual ports. Tianjin Port, as the dominant hub, saw inventories rise first and then decline, while Guangxi and other smaller northern ports experienced structural increases and decreases. This indicates that overall market supply and demand remained in a state of dynamic equilibrium.

On a port-by-port basis, Tianjin Port's inventories accounted for an absolute majority, with its trend highly resonating with total inventory movements. Since mid-to-late October, demand in the northern market has shown signs of recovery, and inventories experienced healthy drawdowns, potentially influenced by periodic navigation restrictions and transportation adjustments. Meanwhile, inventories at Qinzhou Port in the south continued to climb. Despite ample manganese ore arrivals in South China, the digestion rate remained relatively slow, gradually intensifying inventory pressure. Inventories at Caofeidian Port increased consecutively, whereas at Fangchenggang Port, overall inventories remained low and stable.

In summary, the core characteristic of manganese ore inventories in October was "declines in the north, increases in the south, with total volume remaining stable." The destocking at Tianjin Port offset the inventory builds at Qinzhou and Caofeidian, preventing significant fluctuations in total inventories.

Entering November, this trend is expected to continue, but the magnitude of destocking will depend on the shipment pace and arrival volume at northern ports. Considering that November marks the winter stocking season in northern China, outbound demand from Tianjin Port is expected to remain robust, potentially driving further inventory reductions. With its relatively small base, Caofeidian Port will have limited impact on total volume, reflecting more of a localized redistribution of northern cargo. Arrival and outbound shipment rates at southern ports are expected to remain relatively stable, posing no significant variable.

Overall, the core logic for port manganese ore inventories in November remains "declines in the north, stability in the south, and total volume destocking." Driven by the continuous destocking at Tianjin Port, the average monthly inventory level is expected to shift downward, providing some support for manganese ore price stabilization. However, regional structural differences will persist, and the destocking magnitude at Tianjin Port and the arrival pace at Qinzhou Port will remain the key variables determining the final inventory level.