Smelting acid quotes in multiple regions have been raised successively since the National Day holiday ended. As of October 16, the SMM China copper smelting acid index stood at 1,246.5 yuan/mt, up 28 yuan/mt or 2.3% from the pre-holiday level (1,218.5 yuan/mt on September 30). Within the month, it climbed steadily from 1,221 yuan/mt on October 8 to 1,246.5 yuan/mt. The core driver behind this price turnaround: pre-holiday concentrated price cuts helped effectively reduce inventory at some smelters, while increased maintenance at smelters in October tightened regional supply on a phased basis.
Key regional patterns were"widespread hikes across most regions, with monthly-priced regions holding steady after downward adjustments":
First, acid prices in multiple regions were raised successively after the holiday, with cumulative increases concentrated in the 100-360 yuan/mt range, forming the main body of this uptrend.South China and areas along the Yangtze River led the gains: Fujian raised prices consecutively to the current quote of 1,650-1,950 yuan/mt, a cumulative increase of nearly 500 yuan/mt, the largest nationwide; Jiangxi raised prices twice to 1,350-1,440 yuan/mt, a cumulative increase of over 300 yuan/mt; Hubei had already raised truck transport prices by 75-115 yuan/mt before the holiday, and on October 10 raised water transport prices by another 100 yuan/mt and truck transport prices by 200 yuan/mt, with current ex-works quotes at 1,100-1,290 yuan/mt; some smelters in Anhui were under maintenance, and smelting acid quotes were raised by 100 yuan/mt from 920-970 yuan/mt to 1,020-1,070 yuan/mt; downstream calcium hydrogen phosphate industry demand in Yunnan showed signs of improvement, and smelters collectively raised prices by 40 yuan/mt to 1,340 yuan/mt; Henan raised prices by 150 yuan/mt before a slight correction, with current quotes at 1,100-1,250 yuan/mt and average prices up 125 yuan/mt from pre-holiday levels; Hunan saw three rounds of price hikes totaling about 350 yuan/mt, with current quotes at 1,320-1,400 yuan/mt and normal downstream purchasing.
Second, monthly-priced regions held steady after concentrated price adjustments at the beginning of the month.Enterprises in Northeast China and the Chifeng area implement a monthly pricing mechanism, and their early-month quote adjustments lagged in reflecting price declines already realized in the market: smelting acid prices in Inner Mongolia were lowered from 1,220-1,470 yuan/mt to 1,110-1,270 yuan/mt, with average prices down 155 yuan/mt; Heilongjiang's October quotes were lowered by about 260 yuan/mt to 1,345-1,365 yuan/mt; Liaoning lowered prices by about 215 yuan/mt to 1,450-1,500 yuan/mt. The downward shift in the market's smelting acid price center had already materialized in September and was merely reflected in this month's pricing cycle, not indicating any new deterioration in regional supply-demand conditions in October.
Third, a small number of regions continued to be affected by weak demand, with prices persistently declining. Gansu lowered average prices by about 255 yuan/mt to 980-1,010 yuan/mt; Sichuan lowered prices by 75 yuan/mt to 1,000-1,300 yuan/mt; Guangxi saw a slight decline to 1,450-1,500 yuan/mt as earlier orders were consumed.
Overseas sulphuric acid prices were broadly softer with regional divergence. Sulphuric acid (CFR Indonesia) was quoted at $290-330/mt, averaging $310/mt, down $5/mt MoM; sulphuric acid (FOB South Korea) was quoted at $280-300/mt, averaging $290/mt, down $10/mt MoM; sulphuric acid (EXW DRC) was quoted at $910-990/mt, averaging $950/mt, down $45/mt MoM; sulphuric acid (EXW Zambia) was quoted at $450-700/mt, averaging $575/mt, up $100/mt from the month-end average.
Sulphur prices continued to pull back, diverging notably from sulphuric acid trends. Sulphur (EXW Shandong) was quoted at 6,100-6,600 yuan/mt on October 16, averaging 6,350 yuan/mt, down 1,200 yuan/mt or 15.8% from pre-holiday levels (7,300-7,800 yuan/mt, averaging 7,550 yuan/mt). Overseas markets weakened in tandem: sulphur (FOB Middle East) was quoted at $810-880/mt, averaging $845/mt, with average prices down $10/mt from pre-holiday levels; sulphur (CFR India) was quoted at $850-950/mt, averaging $900/mt, down $150/mt from pre-holiday levels; sulphur DAP/DDP DRC also saw MoM declines.
Overall, it is expected thatthe domestic sulphuric acid market will remain relatively stable this month after the upturn, but the demand side has not improved significantly in tandem with sulphuric acid prices. Actual demand from the fertilizer industry remains lackluster, and there is still downside ahead.
