SMM, October 15:
According to SMM statistics, aluminum billet inventory in major domestic consumption areas recorded 168,500 mt on October 15, destocking by 19,000 mt from last Thursday and 12,500 mt from this Monday, with post-holiday inventory pulling back rapidly from a phase high of 187,500 mt. On a year-over-year basis, inventory was about 21,000 mt higher than the same period in 2025 and about 42,000 mt higher than the same period in 2024, with total inventory still at the highest level for the same period in the past four years. From the perspective of warehouse withdrawals, aluminum billet warehouse withdrawals from September 28 to October 11 recorded 55,900 mt, with sustained withdrawals over the two weeks indicating that consumption resilience remains intact. By region, Foshan inventory stood at 78,000 mt, destocking by 11,500 mt from last Thursday and serving as the main driver of destocking; Huzhou recorded 36,000 mt and Changzhou 18,000 mt, destocking by 4,000 mt and 2,000 mt respectively; Wuxi recorded 31,500 mt and Nanchang 5,000 mt, both basically flat. This round of rapid destocking was driven by both supply and demand: Demand side, downstream processing enterprises gradually resumed production and picked up goods after the holiday, and the rapid pullback in aluminum prices boosted purchase willingness, leading to a significant surge in warehouse withdrawals; Supply side, arrivals were concentrated during the holiday, and the pace of inbound shipments slowed after the holiday, easing supply pressure on a phased basis.
During the week, aluminum prices drifted lower, with SMM A00 spot aluminum prices falling from 23,760 yuan/mt last Thursday to 23,260 yuan/mt this Thursday, a cumulative decline of about 500 yuan/mt. Against the backdrop of weakening aluminum prices, aluminum billet processing fees rebounded broadly across regions. By region, Foshan φ90 aluminum billet processing fees were quoted at 410 yuan/mt and φ120 aluminum billet at 360 yuan/mt, up 210 yuan/mt respectively from last Thursday; Wuxi φ90 aluminum billet was quoted at 540 yuan/mt and φ120 aluminum billet at 440 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt respectively from last Thursday; Nanchang φ90 aluminum billet was quoted at 600 yuan/mt and φ120 aluminum billet at 550 yuan/mt, up 220 yuan/mt respectively from last Thursday. The broad rebound in processing fees during the week was driven by two main factors: first, the rapid decline in aluminum prices strengthened producers' willingness to hold prices firm given their earlier high-cost raw material inventory; second, the significant surge in warehouse withdrawals and recovering downstream buying sentiment provided support for processing fee increases. Processing fee trends next week are expected to depend on aluminum price movements and the sustainability of downstream restocking after the holiday.
