[SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Summary] Glass Price Hikes Implemented, Silicon Metal Destocking, Polysilicon Production Cuts Continue to Advance

SMM, October 12:

Silicon metal

Prices: Last week, oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was at 9,400-9,500 yuan/mt, with futures prices slightly firm in a narrow range. Silicon metal fundamentals are solid. On one hand, prices of electricity, petroleum coke, and silicon coal stayed high, while trucking transportation costs increased, putting significant production pressure on plants. On the other hand, silicon metal supply is tight, and spot circulation of reasonably priced cargo is limited. Silicon suppliers held offers steady or made small adjustments, while downstream buyers purchased on demand.

Production: Silicon metal production in September was 317,000 mt, down 11% MoM. For October, considering production release from capacity that resumed production in the north in September, combined with limited production cuts in south-west China in early October, expectations for production cuts are mostly concentrated in late October or month-end. October silicon metal production is expected to edge up MoM, with limited growth.

Inventory:

Social inventory: SMM data showed that as of October 8, silicon metal social inventory in major regions fell by 3,000 mt WoW from pre-holiday levels (excluding Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, and other regions). Due to reduced shipments from plants to social warehouses, along with buyers gradually picking up goods, silicon metal social inventory showed accelerated destocking in September.

Polysilicon

Prices: Over the weekend, mainstream producers' expected price for N-type recharging polysilicon was 39.7-42.5 yuan/kg. The polysilicon market is currently relatively stable, though market views on prices remain somewhat divided. Some downstream players are mainly digesting inventories in the face of high-priced resources. However, upstream production cuts continue to be implemented, and policy requirements are contributing to a mindset of holding prices firm.

Production: China's polysilicon production in October will decline significantly, with production expected to fall below 100,000 mt. In addition to production cut expectations at some bases in south-west China due to the dry season, some bases in Xinjiang and other regions also have production cut expectations under coordinated cuts.

Inventory: Market transactions are currently extremely limited, with virtually no new orders signed, and polysilicon inventory has consequently risen somewhat. Some participants are trading warrants.

Modules

Prices: In the first week after the holiday, China's prices remained basically stable. Last week, enterprises that had already confirmed module prices mostly kept them steady. On the distributed side, as demand weakened, sentiment for competitive selling in China increased somewhat, particularly for low-efficiency modules. On the centralized side, recent tender projects and delivery volumes have both picked up, and Q4 centralized demand in China is expected to become the main battleground for module enterprises. Topcon 183, 210R, and 210N high-efficiency modules were quoted at 0.7075 yuan/W, 0.718 yuan/W, and 0.723 yuan/W, respectively, while centralized Topcon 182/183, 210N, and 210R high-efficiency modules were quoted at 0.694 yuan/W, 0.705 yuan/W, and 0.700 yuan/W, respectively.

Production: China's module production is expected to rise in October, but recently some enterprises have slightly lowered their production schedules compared with month-end last month. However, the affected volume is still small, and overall October production still shows an increase from September.

Inventory: China's module inventory rose last week, mainly because reduced transport and logistics capacity during the National Day holiday pushed up in-factory inventory levels at module enterprises. However, starting this week, inventory is expected to continue trending downward as delivery orders progress.

High-purity quartz sand

Prices: Currently, domestic inner-layer sand is priced at 40,000-47,000 yuan/mt, middle-layer sand at 21,000-24,000 yuan/mt, and outer-layer sand at 12,500-18,000 yuan/mt, while imported high-purity quartz sand is priced at 50,000-53,000 yuan/mt. The price of 33-inch quartz crucibles is 5,400-5,700 yuan/piece, and that of 36-inch quartz crucibles is 6,450-6,600 yuan/piece. Over the past week, domestic crucible and quartz sand prices have remained stable, with relatively few market transactions. However, starting in October, as the circulation of imported sand in the market improves, it is expected to have some impact on domestic sand prices.

Production : In October, overall quartz sand operating rates are expected to remain on a downward trend. Domestic demand in Q4 is generally lackluster, and enterprises currently face considerable oversupply. Although there has been some shift in production and release, the surplus remains huge. With prices subdued, enterprises are mainly cutting production.

Inventory: Recently, domestic quartz sand inventory has continued to rise. With crucible operating rates declining in October, inventory is expected to maintain a buildup trend.

PV glass

Prices:

3.2mm single-layer coating: 3.2mm single-layer coated PV glass was quoted at 16-17 yuan/m², with prices rising.

3.2mm double-layer coating: 3.2mm double-layer coated PV glass was quoted at 17-18 yuan/m², with prices rising.

2.0mm single-layer coating: 2.0mm single-layer coated PV glass was quoted at 10.2-10.5 yuan/m². Since last week, sentiment around early-month price negotiations has strengthened, and upstream and downstream enterprises in the market are mainly engaged in price bargaining. Top-tier glass players have kept their quotes stable at 10.5 yuan/m² and show little willingness to make concessions. Local transaction prices are also basically hard to find below 10.3 yuan/m². Smaller enterprises have a wider transaction range and more dispersed prices, with some low-price deals close to 10 yuan/m².

2.0mm double-layer coating: The quoted price for 2.0mm double-layer coated PV glass is 11.2-11.5 yuan/m², with prices rising.

Production: Last week, no new cold-repair kilns were added in China. With more production days in October, overall supply edged up, but the increase was limited due to earlier production cuts at kilns.

Inventory: Last week, days of inventories for PV glass in China increased by about 2-3 days because kilns operated normally during the holiday. Inventory is expected to decline again as enterprises begin deliveries after the holiday.