SMM October 10 news:
In the metals market:
Overnight, base metals on the domestic market nearly all rose. SHFE copper gained 0.84%, SHFE aluminum and SHFE lead rose 0.96% and 0.72%, respectively. SHFE zinc rose 1.39%, and SHFE tin gained 1.73%. SHFE nickel fell 0.44%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract edged up 0.19%, and the most-traded cast aluminum contract rose 0.41%.
Overnight, ferrous metals mostly rose. Stainless steel fell 0.26%. Iron ore edged up 0.07%, and rebar rose 0.55%. Hot-rolled coil gained 0.62%. In coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 3.39%, and the most-traded coke contract gained 2.81%.
Overnight on the overseas market, LME base metals all rose. LME copper gained 1.68%, and LME aluminum rose 0.21%. LME lead gained 1.37%. LME zinc rose 2.32%. LME tin gained 3.02%. LME nickel rose 0.95%.
Overnight in precious metals: COMEX gold rose 1.52%, with COMEX gold posting a weekly gain of 1.39%; COMEX silver gained 2.84%, with COMEX silver closing the week higher, up 1.15% WoW. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 1.05%, with SHFE gold posting a weekly gain of 0.4%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract gained 2.23%, while SHFE silver fell for a third straight week, down 1.41% WoW.
As of 8:07 am on October 10, overnight closing prices:
Macro front
Domestic news:
[Accelerating the development of new quality productive forces! The CPC Central Committee and the State Council issue a major document!] To accelerate the development of new quality productive forces, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued the "Opinions on Developing New Quality Productive Forces." The document lays out 19 key measures across five areas: vigorously advancing technological innovation, promoting the deep integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation, focusing on advancing innovation in development models, solidly promoting innovation in institutional mechanisms, and deepening innovation in talent work mechanisms. The document makes clear that China will adhere to innovation-driven development, reform as the priority, tailored approaches based on local conditions, and establishing the new before abolishing the old; adhere to high technology, high efficiency, and high quality; and coordinate the relationships between government and market, quality and business forms, reform and development, and self-reliance and openness. It calls for coordinating development and security, with technological innovation as the guide and a substantial increase in total factor productivity as the core hallmark, to drive revolutionary technological breakthroughs, innovative allocation of production factors, and deep industrial transformation and upgrading; to promote the optimized combination and upgrading of workers, means of labor, and objects of labor; to advance technological innovation, industrial innovation, development model innovation, institutional mechanism innovation, and talent work mechanism innovation in all respects; to accelerate the formation of production relations more suited to new quality productive forces; to foster a favorable development ecosystem conducive to the deep integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation; and to better support high-quality development.
[NDRC: Artificial intelligence is the core support for developing new quality productive forces and building a modern industrial system] A responsible official from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) answered reporters' questions on the "Opinions on Developing New Quality Productive Forces." Artificial intelligence is the core support for developing new quality productive forces and building a modern industrial system. AI is moving from the laboratory into production and daily life, giving rise to new fields and new tracks such as autonomous driving, humanoid robots, autonomous flying drones, brain-computer interfaces, smartphones, smart TVs, smart computers, and smart wearable devices. It also plays an important role in empowering the upgrading of traditional industries. The "Opinions" prominently emphasize the full implementation of the "AI+" initiative, aiming to promote the deep integration of AI with the real economy, help transform and upgrade traditional industries, cultivate and strengthen emerging industries, and make forward-looking arrangements for future industries. The goal is to promptly apply innovation achievements in the intelligent field to specific industries and specific industry chains, using intelligence to drive industries toward high-end and green development, and empowering the transformation and upgrading of all industries. (Jin10 Data App)
[China-EU Trade and Investment Consultation Joint Statement: Reaching an understanding on hybrid vehicle trade, further strengthening export control dialogue, and willing to facilitate export approval for rare earth permanent magnets] On October 8-9, 2026, Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao and European Commission Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security Maros Sefcovic held the second regular meeting of the China-EU Trade and Investment Consultation Mechanism (hereinafter referred to as the Mechanism) in Beijing. The two sides reached multiple consensuses on topics including trade and investment balance, export controls, intellectual property protection, and WTO reform. The two sides reached an understanding on hybrid vehicle trade and will continue to advance procedures related to enterprise price commitments and reviews in the EV anti-subsidy case. Regarding medical devices, the EU side welcomed China's measures to expand imports of EU medical devices, including holding procurement matchmaking sessions during the 9th China International Import Expo; the Chinese side will facilitate export licensing approvals for rare earths and permanent magnets to Europe through a "green channel" mechanism.
[Preview: State Council Information Office to hold press conference next Wednesday at 10:00 am; General Administration of Customs to brief on import and export data for the first three quarters of 2026] The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference at 10:00 am on Wednesday, October 14, 2026, inviting Wang Jun, spokesperson and deputy commissioner of the General Administration of Customs, to brief on import and export data for the first three quarters of 2026 and answer reporters' questions.
[SHFE: Adjusting price limit ranges and trading margin ratios for fuel oil and petroleum asphalt futures contracts] According to the SHFE, after study and decision, effective from the close of trading and settlement on Monday, October 12, 2026, the price limit ranges and trading margin ratios will be adjusted as follows: For fuel oil futures contracts FU2612 and FU2701, the price limit range will be 16%, the hedging position trading margin ratio will be 17%, and the general position trading margin ratio will be 18%. For petroleum asphalt futures contracts BU2610, BU2611, BU2612, and BU2701, the price limit range will be 12%, the hedging position trading margin ratio will be 13%, and the general position trading margin ratio will be 14%.
[Consolidating the technical foundation: China accelerates international standardization in the low-altitude economy] China is deeply involved in the standardization work of the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) and the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) in the low-altitude economy, promoting the initiation, development, and release of international standards. Among them, the "UAV Perception and Obstacle Avoidance System" standard, jointly led by China, filled a gap in international standards in the relevant field. The "Cards and security devices for personal identification - Unmanned aircraft system (UAS) license and drone/UAS security module - Part 5: Test methods for drone/UAS security module," proposed under China's leadership, was successfully approved as the first international standard proposal in the field of unmanned aircraft identification. (CCTV News)
[Shanghai International Energy Exchange: Adjusting trading limits for crude oil and low-sulfur fuel oil futures contracts] Shanghai International Energy Exchange: After study and decision, effective from the trading session on October 13, 2026 (i.e., the night session of October 12), the trading limits for non-futures company members, overseas special non-brokerage participants, and clients in crude oil and low-sulfur fuel oil futures contracts will be adjusted as follows: The maximum number of intraday opening trades for crude oil futures contracts SC2612 and SC2701 will be 800 lots. The maximum number of intraday opening trades for low-sulfur fuel oil futures contracts LU2611, LU2612, and LU2701 will be 1,500 lots.
US dollar:
Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.1% to 102.23. Weekly: the US dollar index rose for a fourth straight week, up 0.29% WoW. Market participants are weighing persistent inflation concerns and the future direction of the US Fed's interest rate policy.
US consumer confidence fell further in early October, with consumers' assessment of current economic conditions dropping to a record low, as persistently high inflation continues to weigh on US household finances. The preliminary University of Michigan survey released on Friday showed the October consumer sentiment index fell to 46.3, the lowest since May. The current economic conditions index plunged from 50.9 in September to 44.7, the lowest on record. Meanwhile, the consumer expectations index rose from 46.3 to 47.3, the first increase since July. With gasoline prices staying high, borrowing costs rising, and hiring slowing, US consumer confidence continues to deteriorate. The survey showed consumers expect prices to rise 4.7% over the next year, up from 4.6% in September. Long-term inflation expectations for the next 5 to 10 years rose to an annual average of 3.5%, slightly above September's level. Joanne Hsu, director of the University of Michigan consumer survey, said in a statement that low-income consumers and consumers with smaller stock portfolios saw a notable decline in sentiment this month. (Jin10 Data App)
The US Fed's latest Survey of Consumer Finances shows that US household debt stress is intensifying, with more borrowers falling behind on loan payments or needing to devote a larger share of income to debt repayment. The survey showed the median household debt payment-to-income ratio rose to 15.4%, up 2 percentage points from 2022. The US Fed noted this may be related to higher mortgage and consumer loan rates over the same period. Meanwhile, the share of households with a heavy debt payment burden rose from 6.5% in 2022 to 8.6% in 2025, the highest since the survey began in 2013. For these households, debt payments account for 40% or more of income. More notably, from 2022 to 2025, the share of households reporting loan delinquencies surged from about 12% to nearly 20%. These data indicate that as borrowing costs rise, US households not only need to devote more income to debt repayment, but loan delinquencies have also increased markedly, reflecting deteriorating financial conditions for some households. (Jin10 Data App)
In addition, according to a notice posted on the White House website on Friday, US President Trump announced the establishment of a special committee to investigate allegations against US Fed Governor Lisa Cook. According to the notice dated October 7, Trump said: "To assist me in carrying out this responsibility, the committee will investigate the allegations against Governor Cook and report to me whether there is 'just cause' for removing Governor Cook." The investigation will focus on assessing whether Cook meets the legal conditions for removal, and it does not yet mean she has been removed. (Jin10 Data App)
Other currencies:
Capital Economics economist Thomas Ryan said that after two consecutive months of sharp declines in Canadian employment and a slight rise in the unemployment rate, only a September inflation reading significantly above expectations could bring the option of a rate hike by the Bank of Canada later this month back into discussion. Canada's September employment fell by 68,300, notably weaker than the market's general expectation of a slight increase and also below Capital Economics' earlier forecast of flat employment. However, Ryan believes the actual employment situation is not as bad as the headline data suggest. He noted that part of the decline reflects a pullback in young workers after unusually strong summer hiring, while the weakness was concentrated mainly in the public sector. Ryan still expects the Bank of Canada to wait until 2027 before beginning to normalize its policy rate. (Jin10 Data App)
Russia's September consumer prices rose 6.35% YoY, above the market expectation of 6.3%, and rose 0.35% MoM, with inflation persistently above the central bank's 4% target. Although seasonal price declines in fruits and vegetables partially offset the increase, weekly price gains jumped from 0.12% to 0.96% after regulated prices such as utilities were raised this month. The chief economist at CentroCredit Bank said the bank had previously expected the Russian central bank to keep its benchmark rate unchanged at 14% through year-end, but another rate hike has now become a realistic possibility. The Russian central bank will hold its rate-setting meeting on October 23. Last month, it paused rate cuts for the first time since June 2025 due to inflation risks from fuel supply disruptions and increased government spending. The central bank had already raised its end-2026 inflation forecast to 6% to 7%, meaning inflation will exceed the target for a seventh consecutive year. In addition, continued Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries are disrupting the fuel market, and the fiscal deficit is expected to reach twice the original plan, further intensifying price pressures. (Jin10 Data App)
Data:
Next week will see the release of Germany's final September CPI MoM, the US September NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, the US ADP employment change for the week ending September 26, US September existing home sales annualized, China's September CPI YoY, US September unadjusted CPI YoY, and US September seasonally adjusted CPI MoM
US September seasonally adjusted core CPI MoM, US September unadjusted core CPI YoY, China September trade balance, Australia September seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, UK August three-month GDP MoM, UK August manufacturing output MoM, UK August seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, UK August industrial output MoM, France September final CPI MoM, Eurozone August industrial output MoM, Canada August wholesale sales MoM, US initial jobless claims for the week ending October 10, US September retail sales MoM, US September PPI YoY, US September PPI MoM, US October New York Fed manufacturing index, US October Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, US August business inventories MoM, China September total electricity consumption YoY, China September total electricity consumption, Eurozone September final CPI YoY, Eurozone September final CPI MoM, Eurozone August seasonally adjusted trade balance, US September import price index MoM, US September industrial output MoM, and other data.
In addition, next week will also see: the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok, through the 18th; 2026 FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed Chairman Hammack speaking; the Reserve Bank of Australia releasing the minutes of its September monetary policy meeting; Fed Governor Waller speaking at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in India; Apple holding a smart home product launch event in New York; 2028 FOMC voting member and Boston Fed President Collins speaking; Bank of Canada Governor Macklem participating in a fireside chat at the Institute of International Finance (IIF) Annual Membership Meeting in Bangkok; ECB President Lagarde speaking on Europe's digital future; Fed Governor Bowman speaking; the Fed releasing the Beige Book; China's refined oil products opening a new pricing adjustment window; the National Energy Administration releasing total electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month; the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting; 2026 FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed Chairman Hammack speaking; Bank of England Governor Bailey participating in a fireside chat; Fed Chairman Warsh attending the IMF Annual Meetings in Bangkok and holding a fireside chat with IMF Managing Director Georgieva; Bank of Canada Governor Macklem attending the IMF Annual Meetings and participating in a panel session; and Bank of England Governor Bailey speaking.
On the crude oil front:
Overnight, both oil futures edged up, with WTI up 0.19% and Brent up 0.25%. On the weekly chart, WTI futures rose, gaining 0.6% for the week; Brent futures rose for a second straight week, up 2.24% for the week. Concerns over the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and a hurricane approaching the northern Gulf of Mexico, which prompted the US to shut in more crude oil capacity, supported oil prices. However, Trump's announcement that Russia would release diesel supplies to the global market limited the gains in oil prices.
US President Trump has issued new, conflicting signals regarding the timetable for military action against Iran. At a White House press briefing on Friday, when asked why he would delay action against Iran until after the midterm elections rather than act immediately, Trump said it was "possible" the US would act immediately. Just the day before, on Thursday, Trump had explicitly stated that the US "will not attack Iran before the midterm elections" and described ongoing negotiations with Iran as "productive." This abrupt reversal has made it increasingly difficult for outside observers to grasp the direction of White House policy and has kept investors on high alert over uncertainty in the Middle East. (Wall Street CN)
Trump said on social media that his call with Putin was very successful, and that Russia would immediately supply more than 300,000 mt of diesel, followed by 500,000 mt in November, an additional 1 million mt thereafter, and another 3 million mt depending on refinery conditions. Ultima Markets senior analyst Elon Gu believes that if attacks from Iran continue to escalate and the White House reconsiders military action, oil prices could surge rapidly, especially given that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is already far below pre-war levels. As the best indicator of physical crude oil supply-demand tightness, Dated Brent prices soared this week, approaching the post-war historical high once again. (Wall Street CN)
In addition, according to The Washington Post, the US blockade of Iranian ports has driven Iranian oil exports to extremely low levels, costing Tehran billions of US dollars in monthly revenue. Although economic pressure has not yet forced Iran to make concessions in negotiations, a senior Trump administration official said the White House still believes time is on America's side. The official explained that during previous rounds of economic pressure, Iran was able to rely on oil revenue to ease economic strain, but the port blockade now being implemented by the US is eliminating that room for maneuver, steadily strengthening the impact of sanctions. In the Trump administration's view, blocking Iranian oil exports will continue to erode Tehran's ability to withstand economic pressure. So far, however, the economic losses have not translated into Iranian concessions on key negotiating terms, and the impasse between the US and Iran remains unbroken. (Jin10 Data APP)
The US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued General License No. 135 on October 9 local time, authorizing transactions involving Russian-origin diesel that were previously prohibited under sanctions against Russia, covering sales, delivery, discharge, and import, and explicitly permitting import into the US. The license is valid until 12:01 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on April 7, 2027 (12:01 p.m. Beijing time on April 7, 2027). However, the license still prohibits the transfer of funds from accounts opened by the Russian central bank, the Russian National Wealth Fund, or the Russian Ministry of Finance at US financial institutions. (Jin10 Data APP)
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said Russia will immediately begin lifting diesel export restrictions, ahead of the original plan. According to him, Russia is willing to supply additional diesel to the US and all partners in October, with 300,000 mt in October, rising to 500,000 mt in November and 1 million mt in December. Novak also noted that the Russian market will be fully supplied with diesel as well. The Russian government previously decided to extend the export ban on products from diesel, marine fuel, and gasoil producers until October 31. (CCTV)
As Category 3 Hurricane Isaias approaches the US Gulf Coast, local oil producers have suspended about 1.46 million bpd of crude oil production, accounting for 72% of the region's total output. The US Bureau of Ocean Energy Management said that as of 12:00 pm ET Friday (00:00 Beijing time on October 10), workers had been evacuated from 129 offshore platforms, and two mobile drilling rigs had been moved out of the storm's path. BP has shut in production at its Thunder Horse and Na Kika platforms and evacuated non-essential personnel from three other platforms. Supply disruptions pushed up Gulf of Mexico crude prices, with Mars crude trading at a premium of about $3/bbl to WTI crude, and Thunder Horse crude at a premium of more than $4/bbl for two consecutive trading days. (Jin10 Data APP)
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