
Futures: The aluminum alloy 2611 contract opened at 23,300 yuan/mt today, shot up to an intraday high of 23,620 yuan/mt in early trading before consolidating and pulling back. The market weakened in the afternoon, dipping to a low of 23,255 yuan/mt, and closed at 23,260 yuan/mt, down 260 yuan/mt, or 1.11%. Daytime session trading volume was 5,952 lots, and open interest decreased by 258 lots, showing a pattern of lower prices on reduced open interest. The daily candlestick closed as a bearish solid body, with prices breaking below short-term moving averages. The DKX indicator's B line remained above the D line, while the KD indicator's K value was below the D value, indicating short-term consolidation turning weaker.
Spot: ADC12 market quotes were generally weak today, with SMM ADC12 prices falling 100 yuan/mt from the last trading day before the holiday to 24,400 yuan/mt. The price weakness was mainly driven by the post-holiday pullback in aluminum prices and futures, along with rising market sentiment to follow the decline. Some enterprises chose to adjust their quotes in line with market conditions. However, aluminum scrap raw material prices fell by a relatively limited margin. With compliant raw material supply remaining tight, the cost side still provided some support to spot prices, so some enterprises kept their quotes unchanged for the time being. Demand side, downstream procurement largely resumed after the holiday, but overall performance was relatively steady, with limited improvement in market transactions. Overall, ADC12 prices are expected to continue moving sideways in the short term. Futures and aluminum price trends will cause some disturbance to market sentiment, but cost support still limits further downside for prices. Attention should be paid to the post-holiday recovery in downstream demand and changes in aluminum scrap raw material prices.


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