During the National Day holiday, magnesium ingot prices were generally under pressure and weakened. On October 2, a large primary magnesium smelter in the main production area closed deals at 15,600 yuan/mt. The smelter had expected transactions to continue expanding at this price, but downstream buying sentiment was mediocre, and the market quickly entered a short-term standoff. On October 3, the transaction center pulled back to 15,500 yuan/mt, with multiple smelters following through on deals. As of today (October 8), mainstream quotations from magnesium smelters were concentrated at 15,500 yuan/mt, with some slightly lower-grade cargoes transacted at 15,450 yuan/mt. Foreign trade FOB prices also pulled back to $2,200/mt.
Looking ahead, primary magnesium smelters currently hold both a willingness to sell and a desire to hold prices firm. Several smelters hope to stabilize transactions near 15,500 yuan/mt, but end-user inventories restocked before the holiday have not yet been fully digested. Downstream purchasing willingness remains weak, with buying mostly driven by restocking for immediate needs and low-price stockpiling, while the market is dominated by a wait-and-see sentiment. According to SMM's communications with industry participants, although multiple traders entered the market to purchase during the National Day holiday, their buying was relatively rational and did not involve heavy stockpiling, with an overall pessimistic outlook on the market's future direction. Overall, a sharp decline in magnesium prices is unlikely in the short term, while significant upside is also limited. Prices are expected to consolidate near the bottom going forward.
