[Platinum & Palladium Price Review and Forecast]
On the first trading day after the National Day holiday, platinum and palladium saw sharp catch-up declines. Traders and downstream buyers actively bought the dip, and spot supply was tight.
October 8 was the first trading day for domestic futures after the National Day holiday. Dragged by the sharp sell-off in overseas platinum and palladium during the holiday, the most-traded platinum and palladium contracts on GFEX both gapped down significantly.
As of the 11:30 morning close, the most-traded GFEX platinum contract PT2612 was at 406.05 yuan/g, down 14.15 yuan/g from the pre-holiday close of 420.20 yuan/g, a decline of about 3.37%, with an intraday low of 400.55 yuan/g; the most-traded palladium contract PD2612 was at 271.90 yuan/g, down 20.30 yuan/g from the pre-holiday close of 292.20 yuan/g, a decline of about 6.95%, with an intraday low near 269.80 yuan/g, marking a new low since the contract's listing.
During the National Day holiday, overseas platinum and palladium remained under pressure. NYMEX palladium fell from about $1,213/oz before the holiday to around $1,120/oz, a cumulative decline of over 7%, mainly dragged by the 10-year US Treasury yield breaking above 5% to a new high since 2007 and a stronger US dollar index. Overseas platinum also pulled back to around $1,640/oz over the same period. Today's catch-up decline in the domestic market was broadly in line with the overseas market, with palladium falling significantly more than platinum.
In the spot market, after the sharp drop in futures prices on the first post-holiday trading day, downstream enterprises showed notably stronger dip-buying willingness. Traders and end-users actively inquired and purchased, and market activity was significantly higher than before the holiday. In the morning session, platinum suppliers quoted with wide price spreads, and multiple market participants sought quotes from each other. As trading progressed, quotes gradually stabilized near parity with the 2612 contract. Meanwhile, as GFEX warrant releases at parity provided limited momentum, available spot supply held by traders was tight, and suppliers showed strong willingness to hold prices firm. Spot prices fell less than futures. Overall, post-holiday spot quotes were concentrated near parity with the PT2612/PD2612 contracts, and trading activity picked up.
Looking ahead, the room for further sharp declines in platinum and palladium in the short term is limited, and prices are likely to enter a phase of consolidation at lows. The key factor is that October rate hike expectations have cooled significantly. The latest CME data shows an 80.6% probability of rates staying unchanged in October and only a 19.4% probability of a hike. Combined with September nonfarm payrolls rising by only 29,000, far below expectations, the most intense phase of rate-driven pressure has temporarily faded. After the oversold decline, today's spot market saw active dip-buying and brisk trading, with tight spot supply, all providing support on the downside. However, the probability of a December rate hike remains above 64%, the September FOMC minutes still carried hawkish signals, and US Treasury yields remain elevated at 5%, so medium-term pressure persists. In the short term, aggressive shorting is not advisable. Watch for September CPI data and policy signals from the October FOMC meeting.
[Platinum & Palladium Weekly Data Commentary]
In terms of COMEX inventories, this week continued to show significant divergence, with platinum registered inventory accelerating its drawdown to historical lows. COMEX registered deliverable platinum inventory has fallen to about 116,400 oz, with total platinum inventory at about 313,000 oz. The registered inventory ratio has dropped to about 37.2%, leaving the deliverable buffer persistently thin. For palladium, COMEX registered palladium inventory was about 196,800 oz, edging down 0.6% over the past 30 days, with a registered ratio of about 78.7%. Total palladium inventory was about 249,900 oz, still near the high end of the past year's range, with the ample supply pattern unchanged.
On the import side, according to customs data, August 2026 imports of unwrought platinum and platinum powder were about 8.11 mt, down 2.87% MoM and up 11.55% YoY. August 2026 imports of unwrought palladium and palladium powder were about 3.35 mt, up 12.04% MoM and up 73.58% YoY. Overall, the import run-rate for platinum and palladium in 2026 is significantly higher than the same periods from 2023 to 2025. Domestic platinum and palladium supply remains relatively ample, and with export restriction policies in place, the domestic surplus is difficult to absorb through exports.
In terms of lease rates, London platinum and palladium lease rates remained at low levels. The one-month platinum lease rate was below 2%, and the one-month palladium lease rate hovered near 1%, indicating ample spot market liquidity and weak borrowing demand, with the overall ample supply pattern unchanged.
[Platinum Group Compounds]
This week coincided with the National Day holiday, and October 8 was the first trading day after the holiday. Therefore, this week's price action for both products mainly reflects the first post-holiday trading day, with reference to the trend since late September. Chloroplatinic acid was quoted at 166.5 yuan/g today, down 3 yuan/g from 169.5 yuan/g on the last trading day before the holiday, a decline of about 1.8%; it has cumulatively pulled back about 7.5% from 180 yuan/g in early September. Palladium chloride was quoted at 177 yuan/g after the holiday, down 9.5 yuan/g from 186.5 yuan/g before the holiday, a decline of about 5.1%; it has cumulatively pulled back about 12.4% from 202 yuan/g in early September, with a notably faster and deeper decline.
Looking at September data, both products shot up in early September before grinding lower: chloroplatinic acid briefly rose to 185 yuan/g on September 10 before consolidating lower, accelerated its decline in late September, and continued to fall on the first post-holiday trading day to a new range low. Palladium chloride peaked at 205 yuan/g on September 4 before declining all the way, and after the holiday it caught down to 177 yuan/g, also the lowest level since September.
In the spot market, compared with the retreat after rapid rise since early September, downstream purchase willingness was good and prices met expectations. However, due to the holiday impact, purchase volumes during the holiday decreased compared with before the holiday. As operations gradually resume, spot shipments are expected to increase.
![Platinum futures fell after the holiday, spot trades recovered [SMM Daily Review]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/kLgYV20251217171736.jpg)
