Indian ADC 12 prices have remained relatively firm despite the recent correction in LME aluminium 3-month prices. Ex-Works Mumbai is currently at ₹308,000–310,000/mt, averaging ₹309,000/mt (~$3,215/mt), compared with ₹311,000/mt (~$3,235/mt) last week. Delhi is currently at ₹305,000–310,000/mt, averaging ₹307,500/mt (~$3,201/mt), compared with ₹305,000/mt (~$3,174/mt) previously.
For Japan, Indian-origin ADC 12 is currently indicated at $3,085–3,100/mt, averaging $3,092/mt, compared with $3,090/mt last week, indicating a largely stable export market.
Regional prices remain competitive. SMM assessments show China-origin ADC 12 CIF Japan at $3,090–3,150/mt, averaging $3,120/mt, while Thailand FOB and Malaysia FOB both average $3,105/mt. Indian-origin material at around $3,092/mt remains slightly below Thailand and Malaysia levels and about $28/mt below the China-origin CIF Japan average.
Meanwhile, LME aluminium 3-month declined from $3,252.5/mt on September 24 to $3,213.5/mt on September 30, a fall of around 1.2%. The decline was mainly driven by pre-holiday position reduction, concerns over a possible post-holiday inventory build-up and relatively soft downstream demand expectations in China. Broader pressure from the stronger US dollar and higher Treasury yields further amplified the decline, despite LME aluminium inventories remaining relatively low.
The correction in LME has so far not translated into a proportionate decline in ADC 12 prices, highlighting the influence of physical-market fundamentals. At the micro level, availability and replacement costs of suitable scrap remain key factors for alloy makers. Market feedback indicates tighter availability of primary scrap, particularly wire and extrusion scrap, which could keep feedstock costs firm. However, softer downstream demand and the recent LME correction may encourage alloy makers to take a more cautious approach to purchases.
Overall, ADC 12 is showing a divergence between the futures and physical markets: LME aluminium has corrected, while domestic ADC 12 prices remain relatively resilient due to feedstock constraints and firm alloy-making costs. The near-term direction will depend on whether weaker LME levels translate into lower scrap offers and greater buyer resistance, or whether tight scrap availability continues to provide support to ADC 12 prices.
