In September 2026, China's copper cathode production was 1.1206 million mt, down 2.3% MoM and down 0.04% YoY. Cumulative production from January to September was 10.4155 million mt, an increase of 355,700 mt from the same period last year, up 3.54% YoY. The continued decline in copper cathode production in September was mainly due to concentrated maintenance at smelters, tight cold material supply, and lower earnings from by-products such as sulphuric acid, which reduced effective capacity utilization. Overall, domestic smelters had not yet shown significant production cuts in September, and the decline in production was mainly caused by maintenance. According to SMM estimates, the impact from maintenance at domestic smelters in September 2026 was 44,800 mt.
In terms of smelting profitability, according to SMM estimates, the average monthly loss for smelters producing with spot-purchased copper concentrates as raw material in September was 4,129.28 yuan/mt, an expansion of about 2,000 yuan/mt from the previous month. Given that the downward trend in copper concentrate treatment charges (TCs) has not yet reversed, combined with weakening sulphuric acid prices, the related losses are expected to widen further in October, potentially reaching 5,000 yuan/mt.
Looking ahead to October, the policy environment for copper scrap raw materials remains tight, and with concentrated maintenance at smelters, the impact from maintenance is expected to increase further. Meanwhile, against the backdrop of tight raw material supply and widening smelting losses, some domestic smelters have already shown willingness to reduce copper cathode production and have taken corresponding measures. Proactive production cuts are expected to become a new factor driving the decline in October production. SMM expects China's copper cathode production in October to be 1.0847 million mt, potentially falling to the lowest level of 2026. In terms of new capacity, two smelters with refining capacity of 300,000 mt are expected to come online in September and October, but as they are still in the capacity ramp-up stage during the initial period after commissioning, their contribution to monthly production will be relatively limited.
Entering November–December, as maintenance at some enterprises concludes and newly commissioned enterprises gradually release capacity, China's copper cathode production is expected to rebound.
