9.3 Alumina Morning Comment
Futures Market:
Overnight, the most-traded alumina 2701 contract moved sideways at low levels, opening at 2,656 yuan/mt, reaching an intraday high of 2,668 yuan/mt and a low of 2,655 yuan/mt, before closing at 2,662 yuan/mt. The entire session's range was only 13 yuan/mt, with the futures lacking clear directional drivers as the weak pattern persisted. Trading volume shrank sharply, falling by 40,018 lots from the previous session to 43,675 lots, with market activity dropping to recent lows and strong wait-and-see sentiment among both bulls and bears. Open interest edged down 278 lots to 267,000 lots, with overall capital flows relatively small, leaving market divergence intact but without new directional positioning. Technically, the closing price of 2,662 yuan/mt remains below all moving averages: the MA5 (2,668.6), MA10 (2,694.1), MA20 (2,695.15), and MA40 (2,722.98). The moving average system maintains a bearish alignment and continues to press lower, with no improvement in the medium-term downward pattern. However, the deviation from the MA5 has narrowed somewhat, and short-term moving average pressure has eased slightly, suggesting tentative signs of stabilization at low levels, though not yet firmly established. Overall, the futures display weak characteristics of "contracting volume, bearish moving average pressure, and a low-level center," with the short-term direction still unclear. Resistance above lies at the MA5 (2,668.6) and the 2,670-2,680 yuan/mt zone, while support below is seen at 2,655 yuan/mt and the previous low of 2,650 yuan/mt. Until volume expands effectively and prices break above short-term moving average resistance, low-level weak consolidation is expected to remain the dominant pattern.
Bauxite: As of September 29, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite CIF index stood at $72.61/mt, up $0.2/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of high-grade bauxite (Shanxi) was 585 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; low-grade bauxite (Shanxi) averaged 540 yuan/mt, unchanged; high-grade bauxite (Henan) averaged 590 yuan/mt, unchanged; low-grade bauxite (Henan) averaged 520 yuan/mt, unchanged; high-grade bauxite (Guangxi) averaged 365 yuan/mt, unchanged; low-grade bauxite (Guangxi) averaged 327.5 yuan/mt, unchanged; high-grade bauxite (Guizhou) averaged 495 yuan/mt, unchanged; low-grade bauxite (Guizhou) averaged 400 yuan/mt, unchanged; Guiyang bauxite (60%/6.0) averaged 515 yuan/mt, unchanged; the SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF average was $67.5/mt, unchanged; the SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF average was $60.5/mt, unchanged; the SMM Guinean bauxite FOB average was $40/dmt, unchanged; the SMM Guinean bauxite CIF average was $72/mt, up $0.5/mt from the previous trading day; the Malaysian bauxite CIF average was $52/mt, unchanged; the Malaysian washed bauxite CIF average was $62.5/mt, unchanged; the Ghanaian bauxite CIF average was $78/mt, unchanged; the Indonesian bauxite FOB average was $37/mt in physical content, unchanged; the Turkish bauxite CFR price was $72.5/dmt, unchanged; and the Pakistani bauxite FOB average was $58.5/dmt, unchanged. Alumina spot: On September 29, the SMM alumina index was reported at 2,669.99 yuan/mt, down 1.36 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Shandong alumina index was reported at 2,672.44 yuan/mt, down 1.09 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Henan alumina index was reported at 2,690.00 yuan/mt, down 2.45 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Shanxi alumina index was reported at 2,691.60 yuan/mt, down 2.46 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Guizhou alumina index was reported at 2,701.39 yuan/mt, down 1.3 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Guangxi alumina index was reported at 2,583.16 yuan/mt, down 0.86 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.
Spot-futures price spread daily: According to SMM data, on September 29, the SMM alumina index was at a premium of 16.99 yuan/mt against the latest traded price of the most-traded contract at 11:30.
Warrant daily: On September 29, total registered alumina warrants were reported at 232,800 mt, up 1,190 mt from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Shandong were reported at 3,897 mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Henan were reported at 0 mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Guangxi were reported at 49,599 mt, up 600 mt from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Gansu were reported at 24,868 mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Xinjiang were reported at 154,400 mt, up 590 mt from the previous trading day.
Markets outside China: As of September 29, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $355/mt, with an ocean freight rate of $35.65/mt and the USD/CNY selling rate around 6.73. This price translates to an external selling price of about 3,048.78 yuan/mt at major domestic ports, which is 378.79 yuan/mt higher than the alumina index price.
Summary:
Total alumina inventory across China remains on an inventory buildup track, but the pace of buildup has slowed compared with the earlier period. By segment: raw material inventory at aluminum smelters rebounded slightly, and the pace of downstream stocking improved modestly; finished product inventories at alumina refineries continued to accumulate, mainly driven by higher operating rates and rising production; port inventory basically stopped falling and stabilized, with the pace of re-exports from bonded zones and discharge at ports slowing somewhat; in-transit and railway station inventory edged up, with inventory in logistics segments increasing. On the supply side, existing capacity and operating capacity of alumina across China expanded simultaneously, weekly production continued to rise, and the operating rate edged up, with growth mainly coming from the release of newly commissioned capacity in Guangxi, further intensifying the loose supply-demand balance. On the futures side, prices consolidated on a weak note at low levels, spot and futures trends diverged, market trading activity declined, and both long and short sides turned cautious and wait-and-see, with no clear directional driver formed yet; downstream aluminum smelters mainly purchased as needed, with raw material inventory restocked modestly and no concentrated stockpiling observed. Looking ahead, operating capacity and weekly operating rates are expected to continue edging up. On the inventory side, China's production stays high, while the slowdown in port re-exports and unloading pace provides some offset, so total alumina inventory in China is expected to continue a slight buildup trend. On the price side, the supply-demand surplus remains unchanged and upward drivers are weak, so spot prices are expected to stay stable, mainly moving sideways.
[All data other than public information are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice.]
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