China's Aluminum Ingot Inventory Falls for Third Straight Week Before National Day

[SMM Aluminum Alloy Flash] According to SMM statistics, as of September 30, SMM weekly social inventory of cast aluminum alloy totaled 31,300 mt, down another 500 mt WoW, marking the second consecutive week of destocking. Downstream stocking demand was partially released ahead of the holiday, but no large-scale concentrated stockpiling occurred, as high aluminum prices and elevated procurement costs constrained stockpiling enthusiasm. Given the slowdown in shipments during the holiday and temporary production halts at some enterprises, social inventory may see a phased buildup. After the holiday, close attention should be paid to the pace of production resumptions at enterprises, the recovery of raw material procurement, and the extent of improvement in downstream orders.

Sep 30 news: [SMM Inventory Statistics] According to SMM statistics, changes in aluminum ingot and aluminum billet (collectively referred to as aluminum inventory) inventories in major consumption areas in China around the National Day holiday, 2020-2026: overall destocking before the holiday, with the most concentrated inventory buildup during the holiday. During the one-week National Day holiday from 2020 to 2025, aluminum ingots, aluminum billets, and total aluminum inventory all saw inventory buildup (aluminum ingots up 4.0%-17.3%, aluminum billets up 12.7%-66.0%, total aluminum inventory up 6.9%-21.2%). In the second week after the holiday, aluminum ingots did not see further inventory buildup except in 2021, while aluminum billets destocked in all six years. In 2026, before the holiday, aluminum ingots destocked sharply for three consecutive weeks, down 63,000 mt on September 17, down 55,000 mt on September 24, and down 55,000 mt on September 30, with a cumulative destocking of 158,000 mt over the three weeks, the steepest for the same period in recent years.

[Peak season PMI recovers with structural divergence; macro pressure and pre-holiday adjustment dominate the market] Overall, aluminum prices are expected to consolidate and adjust.