[EUROFER Warns EU Steel Industry's Annual Carbon Costs Could Rise to €8.2 Billion by 2031]

The European steel industry's annual carbon costs could more than double from around €3.4 billion in 2026 to approximately €8.2 billion in 2031 under proposed revisions to the EU Emissions Trading System, according to estimates published by the European Steel Association EUROFER.

EUROFER estimates that carbon costs for conventional blast-furnace steel could rise to around €100/tonne by 2030 and exceed €200/tonne from 2031 as free ETS allowances are progressively reduced. The association warned that the increase could occur even if steelmakers implement currently planned decarbonisation investments.

EUROFER called for the transition from free ETS allowances to the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism to be aligned with the availability of affordable low-carbon energy, effective carbon-leakage protection, markets for low-carbon steel, access to ferrous scrap and investment support. The association argued that these enabling conditions will not become available uniformly across EU member states.

The €8.2 billion figure is EUROFER's industry estimate under the proposed ETS framework and is not an official European Commission forecast. The warning comes as European steelmakers face rising decarbonisation costs alongside weak demand and increasing pressure to finance the transition from conventional blast-furnace production to lower-emission steelmaking.