[SMM Steel Market Flash] India Eyes 600 Mt Steel Capacity by 2047 Under New National Policy

The European steel industry's annual carbon costs could more than double from around €3.4 billion in 2026 to approximately €8.2 billion in 2031 under proposed revisions to the EU Emissions Trading System, according to estimates published by the European Steel Association EUROFER. EUROFER estimates that carbon costs for conventional blast-furnace steel could rise to around €100/tonne by 2030 and exceed €200/tonne from 2031 as free ETS allowances are progressively reduced. The association warned that the increase could occur even if steelmakers implement currently planned decarbonisation investments. EUROFER called for the transition from free ETS allowances to the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism to be aligned with the availability of affordable low-carbon energy, effective carbon-leakage protection, markets for low-carbon steel, access to ferrous scrap and investment support. The association argued that these enabling conditions will not become available uniformly across EU member states. The €8.2 billion figure is EUROFER's industry estimate under the proposed ETS framework and is not an official European Commission forecast. The warning comes as European steelmakers face rising decarbonisation costs alongside weak demand and increasing pressure to finance the transition from conventional blast-furnace production to lower-emission steelmaking.

India's industrial output (IIP) grew 8.0% YoY in August 2026 with manufacturing up 9% and April-August IIP growth at 6.8%. Demand from steel-using sectors was strong. Fabricated metal products grew 16.9% in August (12% in April-August) and other non-metallic mineral products, which include cement, grew 11.4% (10.2% in April-August). Capital goods rose 17% (16.3% in April-August) and infrastructure/construction goods rose 6.4% (7.3% in April-August). In transport, motor vehicles grew 25.2% (19.2% in April-August) and other transport equipment grew 25.3% (22.7% in April-August), while machinery and equipment grew 10.3% (10.4% in April-August). Together, these numbers show solid activity in construction, engineering and auto sectors, which are major buyers of steel, so steel demand looks supported in the near term.