9.29 Alumina Morning Comment
Futures market: Overnight, the most-traded alumina 2701 contract fell sharply and closed weakly. After opening at 2690, it only briefly edged up to 2695 before coming under pressure and pulling back, hitting an intraday low of 2642 and eventually closing at 2645, near the day's low, indicating that bears held absolute dominance. Trading volume surged by 48,478 to 134,000 lots, while open interest rose by 30,381 to 263,000 lots, showing a pattern of falling prices with rising volume and open interest. This suggests bears actively added positions, with selling pressure clearly intensifying and bearish market sentiment heating up. From a technical perspective, the closing price of 2645 has fallen sharply below all major moving averages: MA5 (2693.31), MA10 (2707.4), MA20 (2697.05), MA40 (2726.65), and MA60 (2725.75). The moving averages are clearly aligned in a bearish arrangement, with the dense MA cluster around 2700 forming strong resistance. Overall, the futures trend is notably weak. If the 2690-2700 zone cannot be quickly reclaimed, the market may continue to drift lower in the short term. Support at the 2640 level needs to be watched for its effectiveness; a break below it could open further downside.
Bauxite: As of September 24, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite CIF index stood at $72.41/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The average price of high-grade bauxite (Shanxi) was 585 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; low-grade bauxite (Shanxi) averaged 540 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; high-grade bauxite (Henan) averaged 590 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; low-grade bauxite (Henan) averaged 520 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; high-grade bauxite (Guangxi) averaged 365 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; low-grade bauxite (Guangxi) averaged 327.5 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; high-grade bauxite (Guizhou) averaged 495 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; low-grade bauxite (Guizhou) averaged 400 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; Guiyang bauxite (60%/6) averaged 515 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF average was $67.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF average was $60.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the SMM Guinean bauxite FOB average was $40/dmt, flat from the previous trading day; the SMM Guinean bauxite CIF average was $71.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the Malaysian bauxite CIF average was $52/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the Malaysian bauxite CIF (washed) average was $62.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the Ghanaian bauxite CIF average was $78/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the Indonesian bauxite FOB average was $37/mt in physical content, flat from the previous trading day; the bauxite CFR (Turkey) price was $72.5/dmt, flat from the previous trading day; and the bauxite FOB (Pakistan) average was $58.5/dmt, flat from the previous trading day.
Spot alumina: On September 28, the SMM alumina index stood at 2,671.35 yuan/mt, down 0.24 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Shandong alumina index stood at 2,673.53 yuan/mt, down 0.14 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Henan alumina index stood at 2,692.45 yuan/mt, down 0.44 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Shanxi alumina index stood at 2,694.06 yuan/mt, down 0.24 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Guizhou alumina index stood at 2,702.69 yuan/mt, down 0.51 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Guangxi alumina index stood at 2,584.02 yuan/mt, down 0.40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.
Spot-futures price spread daily: According to SMM data, on September 28, the SMM alumina index was at a discount of 31.65 yuan/mt against the latest traded price of the most-traded contract at 11:30.
Warrant daily: On September 28, total registered alumina warrants stood at 231,500 mt, flat from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Shandong stood at 3,897 mt, flat from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Henan stood at 0 mt, flat from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Guangxi stood at 48,999 mt, flat from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Gansu stood at 24,868 mt, flat from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Xinjiang stood at 153,800 mt, flat from the previous trading day.
Markets outside China: As of September 28, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $349/mt, with an ocean freight rate of $35.65/mt and the USD/CNY selling rate around 6.73. This price translates to an external selling price of approximately 3,005.66 yuan/mt at major domestic ports, 334.31 yuan/mt above the alumina index price.
Summary: Total alumina inventory across China remains on an inventory buildup path, though the pace of accumulation has slowed compared with the earlier period. By segment, raw material inventory at aluminum smelters rebounded slightly, with the pace of downstream stockpiling improving modestly; finished product inventories at alumina refineries continued to accumulate, mainly driven by higher operating rates and increased production; port inventory basically stopped falling and stabilized, as the pace of bonded-zone cargo re-exports and unloading slowed; in-transit and rail yard backlog inventory edged up, with logistics-segment inventory increasing. On the supply side, both existing capacity and operating capacity of alumina across China expanded simultaneously, weekly production continued to rise, and the operating rate edged up, with the growth mainly coming from the release of newly commissioned capacity in Guangxi, further intensifying the supply-demand surplus. On the futures side, prices consolidated on a weak note at low levels, with spot and futures trends diverging. Market trading activity declined, and both longs and shorts turned cautious and wait-and-see, with no clear directional driver emerging yet. Downstream aluminum smelters mainly purchased as needed, with raw material inventory restocked modestly and no concentrated stockpiling observed. Looking ahead, operating capacity and weekly operating rates are expected to continue edging up. On the inventory side, China's production stays high, while the slowdown in port re-exports and unloading pace provides some offset, so total alumina inventory in China is expected to continue a slight buildup trend. On the price side, the supply-demand surplus remains unchanged and upward drivers are weak, so spot prices are expected to stay stable, mainly moving sideways.
[All data other than public information are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice.]
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