SMM, September 29:
Since early July, SMM has learned of six new aluminum projects, from Nigeria, Tanzania, India, Azerbaijan, and Kazakhstan, with total planned capacity expansion of 2.66 million mt from 2026 onward, bringing the total to 23.5 million mt.
News of new projects continues to emerge, but most remain in relatively early stages, such as:
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Project 5 in Azerbaijan, where public reports indicate the country is exploring the feasibility of the project;
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The Inola aluminum smelter has encountered some challenges, citing concerns over environmental impact, tribal sovereignty, and public health, leaving the project's implementation uncertain;
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No substantive progress has been learned so far regarding the new aluminum project in Tanzania.
Commissioning expectations for planned projects exceeding 10 million mt of capacity still require ongoing monitoring. Currently, over 10 million mt of aluminum capacity is expected to be commissioned from 2026 to 2030, with 2027 seeing the highest concentration, accounting for 33% of total expected commissioning.
(Including a small amount of capacity commissioned in 2025)
Over the past two months, due to various reasons including construction progress falling short of expectations, some project commissioning plans have been delayed. Since July, SMM has assessed that five projects have been delayed to varying degrees, and total commissioning expectations for 2026 have been reduced from 2.4 million mt to around 1.9 million mt. Some capacity originally planned for commissioning in 2026 is expected to be postponed to 2027. Meanwhile, some capacity originally planned for 2027 is expected to be deferred to 2028. Total commissioning expectations for 2027 have changed relatively little, edging down only 120,000 mt from the previous estimate, and currently remain around 3.435 million mt.
Indonesia remains the most concentrated region for commissioning, with total planned capacity of approximately 3.5 million mt for 2026-2027, accounting for 66% of the 5.34 million mt of total expected commissioning outside China.
As of now, 1.48 million mt of the capacity planned for commissioning in 2026 has already been commissioned, with the remaining 420,000 mt expected to come online in Q4 2026. SMM will continue to track project commissioning plans and progress.
[Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.]
Data source: SMM
(Guo Mingxin 021-20707919)
