LME tin closed at $54,550 on Sep 25, up 1.30%, with LME tin inventory down to 4,590 mt, destocking 85 mt [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Tin Morning Brief | LME tin settled at $54,550 on Sep 25, up 1.30%, with LME tin inventory down 85 mt to 4,590 mt — Monday, September 28, 2026

[Futures] LME 3M tin opened at $53,985/mt on September 25, hit a high of $54,550 and a low of $53,865, and settled at $54,550, up $700/mt or 1.30% from the previous settlement of $53,850, with open interest at 152 lots. The most-traded SHFE tin SN2610 contract settled at 412,230 yuan/mt in the night session on September 24 (-530/-0.13%), after opening at 408,680, hitting a high of 413,270 and a low of 408,190, with a settlement price of 411,610; volume was 53,429 lots and open interest was 11,881 lots, down 5,446 lots on the day (driven mainly by long liquidation). The futures market regained the 410,000 yuan/mt level after briefly losing it, consolidating on a subdued note.

[Macro] The US Fed's 25 bp rate hike on September 17 to 3.75-4.00% has been delivered; the US dollar index stood at 101.03 on September 26, weakening cumulatively over the week; the 10-year US Treasury yield broke above 5% on September 24 to 5.14% (the highest since 2007); WTI crude oil pulled back notably last Friday (-2.29%); geopolitical risk premium has been partially digested. The macro front is mixed, providing a neutral-to-bearish steer for tin prices.

[Fundamentals] LME tin inventory stood at 4,590 mt as of September 25, down 85 mt from the previous day (prior: 4,675), with the ratio of cancelled warrants remaining elevated, indicating tight spot supply outside China; SHFE tin futures warrants stood at 4,361 mt as of September 24 (-97, prior: 4,458), extending the destocking streak; SMM China tin ingot social inventory continued its buildup pace this week (Sep 22-26), with pre-holiday downstream stockpiling demand remaining lukewarm. On the ore front, production resumptions at Wa State in Myanmar are 40-50% complete, and Indonesia exported 4,564 mt in August, up 52% MoM, leaving the ore market in a tight balance; downstream solder enterprises maintained mid-range operating rates, while AI computing-related packaging orders kept growing.

[Summary] The divergent trend of "LME destocking + SHFE warrant destocking + SMM China social inventory buildup" continued, with the SHFE/LME tin price ratio recovering and lending relative strength to SHFE tin; the most-traded SHFE tin SN2610 contract is expected to consolidate around the 410,000 yuan/mt level today, with cautious trading ahead of the holiday.