SHFE tin closed at 412,790 before Mid-Autumn Festival, down 0.06%. 415,000 becomes the key support level after the holiday [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM Tin Morning Brief | SHFE Tin Closed at 412,790 Before Mid-Autumn Festival, Down 0.06%; 415,000 Becomes Key Support After the Holiday — September 28, 2026 (Monday)

[Futures] The most-traded SHFE tin SN2610 contract on the last trading day before the Mid-Autumn Festival (9/24) opened at 410,910 / closed at 412,790 / high 413,560 / low 409,000 / previous settlement 413,030 / change -240 / % change -0.06% / open interest 27,000 lots / volume 55,200 lots; there was no night session on the evening of 9/24, and SHFE was closed for the Mid-Autumn Festival from 9/25 to 9/27. LME 3M tin closed at $53,850/mt (-0.93%) on 9/24, and rose $700/+1.30% to $54,550/mt on 9/25.

[Inventory in Three Dimensions] LME tin inventory stood at 4,590 mt on 9/24 (down 85 mt from 9/23); SHFE tin futures warrants totaled 4,361 mt on 9/24 (down 97 mt from 9/23); SMM China tin ingot social inventory this week (9/18-9/24) showed a divergent trend of "social inventory buildup, warrant destocking."

[Macro] The US Fed's rate hike has landed, and US Treasury yields continued to hit new highs on 9/25: the 10-year yield rose to 5.14% (the highest since 2007), and the 30-year yield reached its highest since 2004; the US dollar index fell 0.21% to 101.03 on 9/25; US stocks drifted higher on Friday; crude oil pulled back, with WTI down 2.29% and Brent down 2.59%.

[Fundamentals] Ore side: Production resumptions in Myanmar's Wa State have only recovered to 40%-50% of previous levels, and attention is on the subsequent release pace as the rainy season draws to a close; Alphamin in the DRC and Minsur in Peru maintained steady operations. Smelting side: SMM statistics show that this week, operating rates of refined tin enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi presented a divergent pattern of "converging at high levels in Yunnan, holding steady at low levels in Jiangxi," with tin concentrate TCs in Yunnan at 40% remaining weak and stable at low levels. Demand side: High-end solder demand for AI servers, advanced packaging, and other applications remained resilient, while orders for traditional consumer electronics and PV welding strip were weak; downstream players mostly made just-in-time procurement amid high tin prices, with limited willingness to restock proactively.

[Spot Market] On 9/24, the last trading day before the holiday: Tin prices rose, and smelters were restricted in selling at firm prices; downstream processing enterprises maintained normal production, with generally subdued purchasing sentiment and only just-in-time procurement, while spot premiums remained intact. On 9/28, the first day after the holiday, estimates suggest: 415,000 yuan/mt becomes the key support/resistance level for bulls and bears, with attention on the pace of downstream restocking and the direction of social inventory changes after the holiday; on the macro front, record-high US Treasury yields combined with ongoing geopolitical disturbances may keep the futures market in wild swings.