Operating rates continue to rise, production remains high, and the alumina inventory buildup pattern is unlikely to change in the short term [SMM Alumina Weekly Review]

SMM, September 24:

As of Thursday this week, the SMM alumina index stood at 2,671.59 yuan/mt, down 2.35 yuan/mt WoW. Shandong reported 2,640-2,710 yuan/mt, flat WoW; Henan reported 2,680-2,740 yuan/mt, flat WoW; Shanxi reported 2,670-2,730 yuan/mt, flat WoW; Guangxi reported 2,580-2,630 yuan/mt, flat WoW; Guizhou reported 2,720-2,780 yuan/mt, flat WoW.

Markets outside China: As of September 24, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $349/mt, with ocean freight rate at $35.65/mt and the USD/CNY selling rate around 6.73. This translates to a delivered price at major Chinese ports of approximately 3,006.53 yuan/mt, 334.94 yuan/mt above the alumina index price.

As of Thursday this week, China's total built metallurgical-grade alumina capacity was 119.62 million mt/year, with operating capacity at 91.97 million mt/year. The national weekly alumina operating rate rose 0.23 percentage points WoW to 76.89%. Among regions, Shandong's weekly alumina operating rate was flat WoW at 89.20%; Shanxi's weekly alumina operating rate was flat WoW at 72.48%; Henan's weekly alumina operating rate was flat WoW at 59.83%; Guangxi's weekly alumina operating rate fell 0.21 percentage points WoW to 79.45%; Guizhou's weekly alumina operating rate was flat WoW at 81.33%.

In the spot market, one deal was concluded this week. A Xinjiang-based buyer procured 10kt of spot alumina at a delivered price of 2,970 yuan/mt.

This week, China's total alumina inventory increased by 52,000 mt to 7.36 million mt, extending the inventory buildup trend, though the pace of buildup slowed WoW. By segment: aluminum smelter raw material inventories rose by 44,200 mt to 3.4926 million mt, with downstream raw material stockpiling pace improving slightly; alumina refinery finished product inventories rose by 17,900 mt to 1.2835 million mt, mainly due to the continued rebound in national operating rates and higher production, with finished products continuing to accumulate at plants; port inventories edged down by 3,000 mt to 966,000 mt, as re-exports from bonded zones and unloading pace slowed, with port inventories largely stabilizing after stopping falling; in-transit and station stockpile inventories rose by 43,000 mt to 1.391 million mt, with logistics-segment inventories edging up. On the industry front, China's weekly alumina production reached 1.764 million mt this week, up 23,000 mt WoW. Total built capacity expanded to 119.62 million mt/year, and operating capacity rose to 91.97 million mt/year. The national weekly operating rate increased 0.23 percentage points WoW to 76.89%. The production increase was mainly driven by newly commissioned capacity in Guangxi beginning operations, lifting weekly output, further intensifying the supply-demand surplus. Futures prices consolidated on a weak note at low levels, with futures and spot trends diverging. Market trading activity declined, with both longs and shorts turning cautious and watchful, and no clear directional driver emerging yet. Downstream aluminum smelters mainly purchased as needed, with raw material inventories seeing modest restocking, and no concentrated stockpiling activity was observed. Looking ahead, operating capacity and weekly operating rates are expected to continue edging up next week. On the inventory side, China's production staying high, coupled with slowing port re-exports and unloading pace, is expected to offset each other, with total domestic alumina inventory likely to continue a slight buildup trend. On the price side, the supply-demand surplus pattern is expected to remain unchanged and upward drivers stay weak, with spot prices next week continuing to hold steady and move sideways.

[All data other than public information are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.]