Alumina Turns to Net Exports in August; Net Export Pattern Expected to Widen Further in September

SMM, September 24 —

I. Total Volume: Monthly Pattern Shifts from Net Import to Net Export

According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs of China, from January to August 2026, China's cumulative alumina imports reached 2.994 million mt, up more than fivefold year-on-year; cumulative exports totaled 2.339 million mt, up about 33% year-on-year; cumulative net imports stood at 654,000 mt, narrowing from 729,000 mt in January–July. Although the net import pattern persists, the scale of net imports has continued to shrink, further easing the impact of imports on the domestic market.

On a monthly basis, China imported 349,500 mt of alumina and exported 425,000 mt in August, resulting in net exports of 75,500 mt — the first shift from net imports to net exports in 2026. This marks a directional reversal from net imports of 61,700 mt in July. Among these, imports fell 4.7% month-on-month, while exports surged 39.4% month-on-month, with the export surge being the primary driver of the reversal this month.

II. Imports: Australian Alumina Sharply Contracts, Indonesia's Share Jumps to 40%

In terms of import sources, Australia exported 202,500 mt of alumina to China in August, accounting for 57.93% of total imports, down 33.0% month-on-month, extending the downward trend since July. As overseas alumina prices continue to rise and the domestic-overseas price spread remains inverted, Australian cargoes are increasingly flowing to higher-priced markets such as the Middle East and Europe, significantly slowing the pace of shipments to China.

Indonesia ranked second with 142,100 mt, accounting for 40.65%, surging 135.9% month-on-month. Its share jumped from 17.3% in January–July to over 40%, making it the most significant source of incremental imports into China.

Cumulatively, from January to August, Australia exported 2.148 million mt to China, accounting for 71.7%; Indonesia exported 601,000 mt, accounting for 20.1%. Together, the two countries accounted for 91.8% of China's total imports, further reinforcing the highly concentrated import source structure.

III. Exports: Russia Remains the Top Destination, Middle East Demand Continues

On the export side, China exported 227,800 mt of alumina to Russia in August, accounting for 53.59% of total exports, up 27.5% month-on-month and 48.9% year-on-year. Russia continues to be the largest destination for China's alumina exports. From January to August, cumulative exports to Russia reached 1.429 million mt, accounting for 61.1% of total cumulative exports.

In the Middle East, exports to Oman reached 117,000 mt in August, accounting for 27.53%, up 9.0% month-on-month and representing explosive growth compared to approximately 200 mt in the same period last year. Exports to Bahrain totaled 60,900 mt, accounting for 14.32%. Combined exports to Oman and Bahrain reached 177,900 mt, accounting for 41.85% of total monthly exports, making the Middle East the second-largest destination cluster for China's alumina exports. From January to August, cumulative exports to Oman reached 519,000 mt, accounting for 22.2% of total cumulative exports.

In terms of demand structure, the Middle East still has certain rigid demand for bagged alumina, with transportation primarily involving land transit from Oman to other Middle Eastern countries. However, as cargo previously transshipped from China to the Middle East is gradually consumed, export volumes to the region are expected to decline somewhat going forward.

IV. Outlook: September Imports and Exports Expected to Remain in Net Export Territory

Overall, September imports and exports are expected to remain in a net export pattern. On one hand, with overseas prices elevated, shipping alumina back to China offers little profit margin, suppressing imports. On the other hand, the gradual ramp-up of domestic operating capacity further weakens import demand for overseas cargoes. Meanwhile, continued production resumption in the Middle East is driving steadily growing demand for alumina, with domestic port inventories continuously being shipped to the region. Taken together, the net export pattern is expected to widen further in September.