SMM, September 24:
Raw material side: This week, domestic petroleum coke market trading continued to improve, with the overall market holding up well and clear structural differentiation among grades. At refineries, CNOOC's petroleum coke prices were largely stable across all plants, concentrated around 4,650-4,700 yuan/mt; PetroChina's low-sulphur petroleum coke prices in the northeast region were largely stable, while shipments in north-west China were moderate and petroleum coke prices remained stable; Sinopec refineries saw smooth shipments, with its petroleum coke quotations extending an upward trend. Local refineries generally saw good shipments, with more price increases than decreases during the day. SMM's latest data shows: Northeast #1 petroleum coke spot price index was 4,645.29 yuan/mt, flat WoW; Shandong #2 petroleum coke spot price index was 4,370.73 yuan/mt, up 0.37% WoW; Shandong #3 petroleum coke spot price index was 3,893.28 yuan/mt, up 1.09% WoW; Shandong #4 petroleum coke spot price index was 2,607.58 yuan/mt, up 3.13% WoW; north-west #3 petroleum coke spot price index was 4,209.96 yuan/mt, flat WoW. Overall, on the supply side, short-term maintenance at some refineries combined with reduced operating loads led to a slight pullback in domestic coke supply; on the demand side, pre-holiday concentrated stockpiling of carbon used in aluminum production gradually wound down, and incremental purchasing weakened marginally; on the cost side, crude oil and residual oil still provided strong bottom support. As a result, petroleum coke lacked sufficient momentum to push higher in the short term, and prices are likely to consolidate at highs. This week, the coal tar pitch market weakened. As of Thursday this week, the average price of coal tar pitch was 7,987 yuan/mt, down 5.20% from last Thursday. Overall, cost support for prebaked anode slipped slightly this week.
Supply side: Prebaked anode enterprises continued to produce based on sales, with new projects in Guangxi coming on stream successively and new capacity being steadily released; some enterprises saw operating rates pull back slightly due to maintenance, but overall industry supply capability improved steadily. Demand side: Domestic operating aluminum capacity stayed high, providing stable and rigid support for anode consumption. In exports, new aluminum projects in Indonesia continued to ramp up, driving domestic anode exports to improve. Overall, high aluminum operating rates effectively underpinned domestic demand, and the export market improved marginally, but concentrated new capacity additions made supply growth slightly faster than demand growth, intensifying market competition.
Commentary: This week, domestic prebaked anode raw material trends diverged, and overall production costs fluctuated slightly. According to SMM data, as of September 24, domestic prebaked anode production costs were recorded at 6,410.70 yuan/mt, down 0.33% from last Thursday. Looking ahead, cost support remains - the petroleum coke market is holding up well with divergent grade trends, while coal tar pitch prices are affected by weakening cost support and softening downstream demand; overall raw material support for anode prices persists. However, concentrated new capacity additions in the industry are making supply growth faster than demand growth, further intensifying market competition. Overall, prebaked anode costs rose sharply in September, and prices are expected to improve going forward. Going forward, close attention should be paid to supply-demand pattern changes and price trends for prebaked anode and its upstream raw materials.
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