2026 National Day Holiday Survey on Copper Processing Enterprises' Shutdowns – Copper Cathode Rod [SMM Analysis]

Published: Sep 23, 2026 20:12 (GMT+8)

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SMM conducted a survey on the 2026 National Day holiday arrangements, covering holiday production schedules and pre-holiday stockpiling at 20 major copper cathode rod enterprises in China, with a combined annual capacity of 7.66 million mt/year. Overall, the holiday production downtime for copper cathode rod enterprises this year increased YoY. The specific survey findings are as follows:

According to SMM analysis, copper prices fluctuated at highs in the early part of this year, continuously suppressing downstream purchasing demand. Just before the holiday, copper prices saw a sharp pullback, triggering a concentrated release of downstream rigid demand. New orders at copper cathode rod enterprises surged notably, and at that time, enterprises generally expected the holiday duration to be shortened. However, as the holiday approached, spot copper cathode in the market became increasingly scarce, spot premiums kept climbing, and raw material procurement grew more difficult. Coupled with downstream wire and cable and enamelled wire enterprises finding it hard to accept high premiums, stockpiling sentiment weakened markedly. As a result, holiday days increased rather than decreased, and the production pace slipped YoY compared with last year.

Regarding pre-holiday stockpiling, spot supply of copper cathode is tight and spot premiums continued to shot up. Combined with elevated copper prices, copper cathode rod enterprises are facing significant capital pressure. In addition, new orders have declined notably, weakening sentiment for raw material stockpiling. Downstream wire and cable and enamelled wire enterprises had already restocked intensively during the earlier notable correction in copper prices. As the holiday approaches, the pace of stockpiling has slowed down due to high copper prices and high premiums. Moreover, downstream demand has not shown a clear recovery, and holiday duration is basically flat YoY.

Based on the same sample records from the same period last year, the average holiday duration for the surveyed samples during the 2025 National Day holiday was 4.05 days, while the average holiday duration for the same samples during the 2026 National Day holiday is 4.4 days, edging up 0.35 days YoY.

Compared with last year and previous years, in early 2026, driven by a correction in copper prices and sluggish production of secondary rod, copper cathode rod enterprises performed well in Q1. Subsequently, copper prices continued to rise, exerting more pronounced pressure on enterprise orders and production schedules. Combined with the current high premiums, wire and cable enterprises' pre-holiday stockpiling enthusiasm has declined compared with last year, and new orders are relatively scarce as the holiday approaches. From the current downstream demand and order production schedules, enterprises expect demand in October to lack clear signals of a peak-season recovery, and they hold a relatively cautious attitude toward October consumption expectations. Subsequent production pace will be dynamically adjusted based on changes in copper prices and downstream new orders.

Looking ahead to October, affected by the holiday, multiple enterprises indicated that their operating rates would decline MoM in October. From the consumption side, consumption remained weak amid high copper prices, making it difficult to see peak-season performance, and it also showed a weaker trend compared with the same period last year. Based on this, China's copper cathode rod enterprises' operating rate is expected to decline MoM in October 2026 and fall below the level of the same period last year. Given the many uncertainties and several working days remaining before the National Day holiday, enterprises will continue to monitor the subsequent trend of spot premiums and order performance. The average holiday duration for the same sample during the 2026 National Day holiday is tentatively set at 4.4 days. SMM will continue to follow up on the actual production schedules and orders of copper cathode rod enterprises after the holiday, the specific consumption trend and forecast for October, as well as the specific consumption trend and forecast for the month of October.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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