2026 National Day Holiday Survey on Copper Processing Enterprises' Shutdowns – Copper Cathode Rod [SMM Analysis]

Published: Sep 23, 2026 19:50 (GMT+8)

Save

In a survey conducted ahead of the 2026 National Day holiday, SMM investigated and summarized holiday production schedules and pre-holiday stockpiling at 20 major copper cathode rod enterprises in China, with a combined capacity of 7.66 million mt/year. Overall, copper cathode rod enterprises had more production downtime during this year's holiday than last year. The specific survey findings are as follows:

According to SMM analysis, copper prices fluctuated at highs in the early part of this year, continuously suppressing downstream purchasing demand. Just before the holiday, copper prices pulled back sharply, triggering a concentrated release of downstream rigid demand. New orders at copper cathode rod enterprises increased significantly, and at that time, enterprises generally expected holiday downtime to be shortened. However, as the holiday approached, spot copper cathode supply became increasingly scarce, spot premiums kept rising, and raw material procurement became more difficult. In addition, downstream wire and cable and enamelled wire enterprises found it hard to accept high premiums, and stockpiling sentiment weakened notably. As a result, holiday downtime increased rather than decreased, and the production pace slowed YoY.

Regarding pre-holiday stockpiling, spot copper cathode supply was tight and spot premiums shot up, while high copper prices put significant capital pressure on copper cathode rod enterprises. Coupled with a notable decline in new orders, raw material stockpiling sentiment weakened accordingly. Downstream wire and cable and enamelled wire enterprises had already restocked intensively when copper prices pulled back sharply earlier. Approaching the holiday, their stockpiling pace slowed down due to high copper prices and high premiums. In addition, downstream demand showed no clear recovery, and holiday downtime was basically flat YoY.

Based on records from the same sample last year, the average holiday downtime for the 2025 National Day survey sample was 4.05 days, while the average downtime for the same sample during the 2026 National Day holiday was 4.4 days, up 0.35 days YoY.

Compared with last year and previous years, copper cathode rod enterprises performed well in Q1 2026, driven by a pullback in copper prices and sluggish secondary rod production. Subsequently, copper prices continued to rise, exerting more obvious pressure on orders and production schedules. Combined with current high premiums, wire and cable enterprises showed lower pre-holiday stockpiling enthusiasm than last year, and new orders were limited as the holiday approached. Based on current downstream demand and order production schedules, enterprises expect demand in October to lack clear signals of a peak-season recovery and hold a cautious attitude toward October consumption expectations. Future production pace will be dynamically adjusted according to copper prices and changes in downstream new orders.

Looking ahead to October, affected by holiday downtime, multiple enterprises indicated that operating rates would decline MoM in October. From the consumption side, consumption performance is weak under high copper prices, making a peak-season performance unlikely, and it also shows a weaker trend compared with the same period last year. Accordingly, the operating rate of copper cathode rod enterprises in China is expected to decline MoM in October 2026 and fall below the level of the same period last year. Given the current high level of uncertainty and with several working days remaining before the National Day holiday, enterprises will continue to monitor the subsequent trend in spot premiums and order performance. The average holiday duration for the same sample during the 2026 National Day holiday is tentatively set at 4.4 days.SMM will continue to follow up and provide updates on the actual production schedules and order conditions of copper cathode rod enterprises after the holiday, as well as the specific consumption trends and forecasts for October.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

Images in this article contain AI-translated captions for reference only.

For any inquiries or for more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

4 mins ago

Sinomine's Kitumba Copper Mine in Zambia Begins Full-Line Trial Production

China Mining Resources Group (Sinomine Resource Group) announced that its Kitumba copper mine project in Zambia's Central Province has commenced full-line trial production, marking the transition of the project's mining and beneficiation facilities from construction into the production ramp-up stage. According to the company's latest announcement, production preparations for the mining and beneficiation facilities were completed on September 21, 2026, local time in Zambia, after which full-line ore feeding officially began. Copper concentrate is being produced during the trial-production phase. The company said it will determine whether the copper concentrate produced during this stage will be sold externally or retained as feedstock for the project's downstream smelting facilities, taking into account copper concentrate market conditions and progress on construction of the smelting project. Kitumba is being developed as an integrated mining, beneficiation and smelting project in the Mumbwa area of Zambia's Central Province. The project has a designed raw ore processing capacity of 3.5 million mt/year and cathode copper capacity of 35,000 mt/year. At full production, the project is expected to produce an average of approximately 33,000 mt/year of cathode copper and 55,000 mt/year of copper concentrate. The project has a designed operating life of 15 years, with total copper metal production estimated at approximately 570,200 mt over the operating period. Construction of Kitumba's smelting facilities remains underway. Sinomine expects production preparation or trial production for the smelting facilities to be completed in Q4 2026, with formal production scheduled to begin in Q1 2027. The commencement of full-line trial production marks a key step in the development of the Kitumba project as its mining and beneficiation facilities enter the operational ramp-up stage. Copper concentrate produced during the initial phase could either enter the market or be retained for downstream processing, depending on market conditions and progress at the smelting facilities. Attention will now turn to the pace of the project's ramp-up and progress toward the planned start of formal smelting operations in Q1 2027.

4 mins ago

7 mins ago

Meridian Mining Completes Cabaçal Copper-Gold DFS, Targets 4.5 Mt/y Processing Expansion

Meridian Mining has completed a Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) for its Cabaçal gold-copper-silver project in Mato Grosso, Brazil, outlining total life-of-mine copper production of approximately 180,634 mt as the company advances the project toward a final investment decision. The September 22 DFS outlines a 13.9-year mine life based on a conventional open-pit operation. Processing throughput is planned to initially reach 2.5 million mt/year before expanding to 4.5 million mt/year from Year 4. Average copper recovery over the life of the mine is estimated at 92.8%. Initial capital expenditure is estimated at US$322 million, including a 10% contingency, tax credits and pre-investment associated with the planned processing expansion. A further US$56 million of expansion capital is included in the project economics. The DFS estimates an after-tax NPV5 of US$2.09 billion and an IRR of approximately 108% under its base-case assumptions. The study supersedes Cabaçal's March 2025 Preliminary Feasibility Study and incorporates an updated and larger Mineral Reserve estimate, an optimized mine plan and improved metallurgical performance. Meridian said it has already started pre-construction investment on multiple fronts, with US$15.9 million in capital contracts committed. Documentation for the project's Installation Licence was submitted to Mato Grosso's environmental regulator in May 2026 and remains under review. The company is also progressing project financing as it works toward a final investment decision. Completion of the DFS advances Cabaçal toward the development stage and provides a clearer outlook for potential future copper supply from the project. The planned expansion of processing capacity to 4.5 million mt/year from Year 4, combined with estimated life-of-mine copper production of approximately 181,000 mt, establishes Cabaçal as a prospective new source of copper concentrate in Brazil. However, construction remains dependent on project financing, the required Installation Licence and a final investment decision.

7 mins ago

16 mins ago

Capstone Copper Agrees to Sell Cozamin Mine to Luca Mining for Up to US$385 Million

Capstone Copper has entered into a definitive agreement to sell its Cozamin copper-silver-zinc-lead mine in Zacatecas, Mexico, to Luca Mining Corp. for total consideration of up to US$385 million, as the company moves to streamline its portfolio and focus capital on its copper growth projects. Under the agreement, Capstone will receive US$275 million in upfront cash, subject to customary closing adjustments, US$15 million in Luca Mining shares and US$35 million in deferred consideration payable on the first anniversary of closing. Capstone could receive a further US$60 million in contingent cash payments linked to average annual LME copper prices during 2027-2029. Capstone said the transaction will strengthen its balance sheet and provide additional financial flexibility to support its growth pipeline. President and CEO Cashel Meagher said the divestment will enable the company to redeploy capital into high-return growth projects while allowing management to focus on copper growth opportunities in Chile and the United States. Capstone will also retain exposure to potential exploration upside at Cozamin through its shareholding in Luca following completion of the transaction. Luca Mining currently owns two producing mines in Mexico, the Campo Morado and Tahuehueto operations. The transaction is expected to close in Q4 2026, subject to customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals, including stock exchange and Mexican National Antitrust Commission approval. The transaction is not subject to shareholder approval or financing conditions. The proposed sale reflects Capstone Copper's strategy to streamline its operating portfolio while directing additional financial resources toward its copper growth pipeline. Although the transaction does not represent an immediate change in Cozamin's copper production, the proceeds are expected to strengthen Capstone's balance sheet and provide greater financial flexibility as the company advances its growth projects. Completion of the transaction remains subject to regulatory and customary closing conditions.

16 mins ago